Germany | Security risks around federal election

• Polling indicates that the centre-right opposition bloc will probably lead the next government coalition
• Terrorist attacks remain very likely in the country, while Russian-linked hostile operations will probably intensify around the election

Large demonstrations by environmentalists and activists opposed to the far-right are very likely to occur weekly ahead of the German federal election, scheduled for 23 February. Operations by Russia-affiliated actors, including sabotage and espionage, are likely to intensify around the polls. Jihadists, as well as far-right and far-left extremists, will probably be intent on mounting attacks. However, the voting process is likely to pass off largely peacefully due to increased policing and security measures.

Based on current polling, the centre-right CDU/CSU opposition bloc appears to be on course to lead the next government. It would probably need to do so in coalition with one of the members of the current governing coalition. Despite the far-right AfD’s rising popularity it appears to have no realistic prospect of participating in any coalition, as all major parties have ruled out governing with it. CDU/CSU has pledged, among other things, to cut taxes and welfare spending, curb migration, and to ramp up military aid to Ukraine. But on most issues, it would probably have to compromise with any partner.

Major protests upcoming

Regardless of the outcome, we do not anticipate widespread protests following the election. But various activist groups have planned to hold demonstrations in major cities ahead of the polls. Left-wing activists, environmentalists and civil society groups opposed to the far-right have made calls for protests in the coming weeks. These include:

• Hamburg – 31 January, Reesendammbrucke, 1400hrs
• Berlin – 3 February, CDU Conference, City Cube (Messedamm 26), 1000hrs
• Munich – 8 February, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz, 1400hrs
• Berlin – 14 February, Brandenburg Gate, 1200hrs
• Cologne – 14 February, Heumarkt, 1600hrs
• Hamburg – 14 February, Rathausmarkt, 1300hrs
• Munich – 14 February, Konigsplatz, 1400hrs
• Frankfurt – 14 February, Alte Oper, 1600hrs
• Frankfurt – 15 February, Romerberg, 1155hrs

Most of these events will probably attract several thousand participants. Tens of thousands of people have protested countrywide against the far-right as often as every week this month; around 100,000 people reportedly did so last week. While widespread violence or unrest is very unlikely, some activists will probably try to disrupt campaign events. Minor scuffles with police are plausible, as was the case outside the AfD party conference in Riesa, Saxony, on 11 January.

Environmentalist groups also seem to be using polls to amplify their message over climate issues. A coalition of activists has called for countrywide protests on 14 February, citing a lack of public debate on climate issues during the election period. Based on previous actions during such demonstrations, some activists will probably attempt to vandalise the offices of firms they perceive to have links with fossil fuel companies.

There is also a reasonable chance of small far-right protests, ranging between several dozens to a few hundred people, emboldened by the rising popularity of the AfD. But most of these would probably attract larger numbers of left-wing counter-protesters. Some gatherings could result in scuffles between such rival groups. We expect far-right rallies to be larger, potentially attracting several hundred people, in areas where the AfD is polling better, such as in eastern Germany, or shortly following a violent attack attributed to a foreigner. Following a car-ramming attack on 20 December in Magdeburg, AfD held a rally there, attracting several hundred people.

Heightened terrorism threat and rising political violence

Terrorist attacks remain very likely in Germany. While we have not seen specific calls for attacks related to the election in online extremist platforms, jihadists, far-right and far-left actors will very likely be motivated to mount attacks in the coming weeks. Germany features regularly on extremist propaganda spanning diverse ideologies. And major geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war, conflict in the Middle East and migration have all bolstered extremists’ intent to act. Our data supports this with incidents and plots in the last few years.

The threat from jihadists is particularly elevated, in our view. We have recorded three incidents and 11 plots since Hamas’ 2023 attack on Israel, up from only two plots the year before. These included two knife attacks, in Mannheim and Solingen, in May and August, respectively. A jihadist attack would most likely involve a lone actor carrying out a stabbing in a crowded public area.

There have also been major indiscriminate attacks in the last few weeks, in which the perpetrators’ motives remain largely unclear. The car-ramming incident in Magdeburg last month resembled tactics mostly used in jihadist attacks, though the police described the assailant, who had expressed far-right views in the past, as ‘atypical’. Another stabbing on 22 January in Bavaria was labelled an ‘act of terror’ by Chancellor Scholz, though the attacker’s motives have not been disclosed yet.

Far-right and far-left violence and crimes also appear to be rising in recent months. According to the Interior Ministry, there were 33,963 far-right incidents in the first 11 months of 2024, up from 28,945 in the whole of 2023. Most of these involved hate speech against minority groups. Last November, the authorities arrested eight people, including an AfD official, over a plot to establish a Nazi-inspired regime in eastern Germany. A far-right terrorist attack would probably involve a lone actor carrying out a shooting, arson or small-scale bombing targeting ethnic or religious minorities, left-leaning politicians, or sites hosting migrants.

Far-left and environmentalist extremists, on the other hand, are likely to prioritise targeting far-right politicians and firms with perceived links to Israel or fossil fuels. According to the most recent official data, far-left violent incidents rose by around a fifth in 2023, compared with 2022 (727 up from 602). Most attacks would probably involve arson or vandalism of cars, buildings or machinery. Attacks on far-right politicians during the election period are also plausible. Unknown men assaulted an AfD politician in Saxony on 11 January.

National authorities anticipate Russian interference

Russia-linked actors will probably try to mount hostile operations around the polls. This includes sabotage (arson, cable-cutting and assassinations), as well as espionage targeting military sites, the defence industry, and critical infrastructure. We have recorded 32 such incidents since 2019. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has warned of potential Russian interference in the election, and it has established a special task force to tackle this. The interior minister on 13 January also said the threat level has risen, ‘especially in the arms industry’.

Voting day likely to pass off peacefully

Nevertheless, voting is likely to pass off largely peacefully on 23 February. German elections have not been a flashpoint for violence or unrest in the past, and there will almost certainly be a heightened police presence around polling stations and political party offices. The authorities increased the number of bodyguards assigned to prominent politicians a few months ago, due to security concerns related to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

That said, isolated violent or protest actions remain plausible. Some small leftist groups would plausibly attempt publicity stunts outside polling stations where prominent politicians are expected to visit. An activist hit FDP leader, Christian Lindner, in the face with a cake at a campaign event on 9 January. And in the unlikely (but still plausible) event of a violent attack, a lone actor would probably assault a politician, or attempt a stabbing or shooting near a polling station.