US | Scenario assessment of Trump being killed or incapacitated

• Inauguration day is scheduled for 20 January 2025 in Washington DC
• Were Trump killed, we would anticipate large demonstrations and some acts of right-wing violence against government institutions

There have been no further bomb threats or swatting incidents against Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees since several were reported on 26-27 November. Investigations are ongoing into those cases, and officials have so far not publicly commented on the probable perpetrators or their motives. In any case, the authorities have not issued any warnings about other threats to members of the incoming administration, including the president-elect.

Still, the recent incidents have raised questions about his and members of his incoming cabinet’s security. This is also coupled with two failed attempts on Trump’s life earlier this year. Based on our understanding of the US constitution and political party rules, the transition process being postponed or cancelled would be extremely unlikely were Trump killed or incapacitated. Still, such a scenario would probably prompt isolated incidents of right-wing extremist attacks and large demonstrations in major cities.

Bomb threats remain under investigations

Federal investigations into recent incidents targeting some Trump cabinet picks and appointees are ongoing. According to officials cited in the press, at least four Trump nominees and appointees received bomb threats or were targeted in swatting incidents in late November. This involved attackers initiating an emergency law enforcement response on 27 November to a target’s residence under false pretenses. The authorities have not publicly identified the perpetrator or commented on their motive, nor have they warned of any active plots against Trump since.

A very high-level of security around Trump will probably deter more plots against him – or prevent any from coming to fruition. After the second failed attempt on him in September at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, his security detail was bolstered significantly. In addition to more officers, press reports suggest this includes continuous monitoring at his Florida residence, such as robotic dogs, drones and coastguard boats patrolling nearby waterways.

With the election over, Trump’s public appearances will also be limited until Inauguration Day, on 20 January 2025. This means that he will be less exposed to potential threats than he was during the campaign.

Presidential transition likely to proceed smoothly

It is extremely unlikely that Trump’s not being able to take office would delay or postpone the change of government. According to legal and scholarly opinion, only after the electoral college meeting on 17 December will Trump and his running mate JD Vance be considered president-elect and vice-president elect.

If Trump were killed or incapacitated before the electoral college meeting, a replacement candidate for president would be chosen by the Republican national committee, or by a reassembled Republican National Convention, for members of the electoral college to vote for. This is according to a 2020 Congressional Research Service report about the intricacies of the transition.

The death or incapacitation of Trump after the electoral college meets and before the inauguration would also be highly unlikely to disrupt the transition. According to the US constitution, if a president-elect dies or is incapacitated between the electoral college meeting and the inauguration, the vice-president-elect (JD Vance) would assume the presidency. After the inauguration, the constitution also provides guidance on the presidential line of succession for the duration of Trump’s term (see graphic). We assess the potential for a prolonged succession crisis to be very low in this scenario.

Trump death would probably lead to isolated violence and protests

Trump being killed ahead of inauguration day would undoubtedly lead to a sense of national crisis among the public and officials. Based on the reaction to the two attempted assassinations against Trump so far, many voters and activists would be likely to express anger at a range of individuals and organisations for having allowed such an incident to happen.

Right-wing extremists would probably mount attacks in this scenario. We have not seen any calls for violence in the aftermath of the election in the extremist online channels we monitor. But we have seen right-wing users on X and Telegram share theories about how the ‘deep state’ will act to prevent Trump from taking office and the need to protect him. The exceptional circumstance of Trump being incapacitated would be very likely to provide a unifying motivation among like-minded extremists to target sites or individuals perceived to be responsible for his death.

We also assess that a prominent administration nominee or appointee being killed would very likely strengthen far-right conspiracy theories about the ‘deep state’. Users on far-right X accounts and Telegram channels that we monitor have expressed their excitement about several of Trump’s cabinet choices, including, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth and Tom Homan. In our analysis, these users view these individuals as anti-establishment picks who will act against the ‘deep state’, a perceived secret network of government, military, industrial and financial leaders.

Based on the conspiracy theories circulating around about the ‘deep state’, we anticipate targets of any right-wing extremists would probably include the following:

• US federal institutions. That is particularly sites associated with the Secret Service, FBI and Department of Justice, such as department headquarters and satellite offices. And senior leaders of these departments and agencies.
• President Joe Biden, the Democratic party and establishment Republican party members. Users on right-wing channels have previously speculated that Democrats or the ‘deep state’ (which includes Republican members opposed to Trump) orchestrated and facilitated the assassination attempts on Trump. Sites that would be targeted include congressional offices on Capitol Hill, party headquarters and elected officials’ district offices.
• Corporate interests and leaders. Users on right-wing channels have said that major companies and business leaders in some sectors (such as banking, defense and pharmaceuticals) are working to prevent Trump from taking office because of the threat he and his cabinet appointees pose to their commercial interests and influence on government. We would anticipate attacks targeting headquarters, office buildings and public events featuring senior figures from these.
• The media. Users on right-wing channels and some Republican officials have claimed that the ‘mainstream’ media is to blame for (or at a minimum complicit in) the two assassination attempts targeting Trump. Locations that would be targeted include national news studios and office buildings.

There is little to suggest that violent extremists would be able to mount a coordinated and sustained campaign of attacks. Efforts by the authorities since the 2021 storming of the US Capitol appear to have dissuaded many members of established groups from discussing or coordinating potential attacks online. As is currently the case, any acts of political violence or terrorism would probably involve a lone actor carrying out a shooting or small bombing of their own initiative.

We would anticipate large demonstrations in major cities countrywide during the days immediately after Trump’s death. Based on most political protests in the US over the past few years, the vast majority of these would probably be largely peaceful, taking place close to city centres and state government buildings. Nevertheless, at least some opportunistic acts of property damage against buildings linked to the government and law enforcement would be probable, as well as isolated physical clashes between protesters and police forces.