The Governor of California declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles and Ventura counties yesterday, 7 January, after several wildfires spread rapidly on the outskirts of Los Angeles
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 08 January 2024.
- Businesses and travellers in the west and north of Los Angeles will probably contend with operational disruption in the coming days
- Operational disruption currently appears concentrated around Pacific Palisades and Pasadena; downtown Los Angeles, including Los Angeles International Airport, appear to be largely unaffected
Four ongoing wildfires will probably cause severe operational disruption in west and northern Los Angeles over the coming days. These fires spread rapidly on 7 and 8 January. The city government has already ordered tens of thousands of people to evacuate from nearby areas and will probably order more today and tomorrow; it said strong winds are preventing it from containing the fires. Road closures, power outages and air quality deterioration are also likely nearby. These fires do not seem to be causing any disruption in downtown Los Angeles or at the city’s airport.
Fires causing operational disruption in Los Angeles
Four wildfires on the northern and western outskirts of Los Angeles are currently spreading rapidly due to dry conditions and strong winds. This is particularly in Pacific Palisades, a neighbourhood in the west of the city between Malibu and Santa Monica, where a 2,900-acre wildfire has destroyed several hundred homes; tens of thousands of residents have left the area. The government has also said a 2,200-acre fire in the north (Eaton Fire) is quickly spreading; it ordered evacuations in the northern Pasadena neighbourhood in the last few hours.
The fires appear to be causing significant operational and travel disruption in nearby areas; this will probably continue in the coming days at least. Local press have reported on traffic gridlock along motorways in Palisades and abandoned cars blocking some narrow mountainous roads. According to PowerOutage.us, a website monitoring electricity access, around 230,000 customers are without power in Los Angeles and Ventura counties; a major electricity supplier said it has shut off power in affected counties to prevent electric systems from igniting further fires.
The authorities have said they have not yet contained any of the fires. And that they will be unable to do so as high winds persist. Officials from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) have told US press outlets in the last few hours that their current concern is evacuation, rather than containment, stating that ‘new fires pop up as we speak’. The mayor of Los Angeles also said today that ‘the windstorm is expected to worsen through the morning’. We therefore anticipate the city government will order further evacuations today and tomorrow.
The authorities will probably be able to contain the fires in the coming days. A CNN meteorologist said weather conditions are likely to ease throughout today, 8 January, with strong winds weakening. And the state and federal governments have dedicated significant resources to tackling the wildfires, especially given they are near highly-populated areas. Emergency services in the area regularly contend with yearly wildfires, including four major fires in 2021.
High risk of fires throughout southern California
We have not seen any sign that the fires are causing any disruption elsewhere in Los Angeles. The authorities at Los Angeles International Airport have also not issued any warnings about potential flight delays or cancellations; winds currently seem to be diverting smoke away from the airport. That said, the regional air quality authority issued an alert for Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties due to high pollution levels, advising citizens to stay indoors. A live map from CAL FIRE (available here) shows that the smoke will spread south along the coast.
The whole of southern California will also probably remain at high risk of fires into next week. The National Weather Service and CAL FIRE have both issued alerts for large portions of southern California until Thursday, 9 January, indicating a ‘high fire danger’ in the coming days. According to press reports citing meteorologists, high pressure in Nevada and Utah has resulted in strong easterly winds in southern California, which has caused small fires to quickly spread. While wind conditions appear to be improving, we anticipate the risk of further fires will remain high.
Image: Plumes of smoke are seen as a brush fire burns. A fast-moving brushfire in a Los Angeles suburb burned buildings and sparked evacuations as “life threatening” winds whipped the region, in Pacific Palisades, California, on 7 January 2025. Photo by David Swanson / AFP via Getty Images.
