The presidential election runoff period in Romania, which runs until the final round on 18 May, will probably pass off without major disorder
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 06 May 2025.
- A right-wing populist candidate came first in the first round on 4 May, but the public response so far has been largely calm
- The main trigger for protests or violence is if the electoral authorities annul the poll, as they did in December. But this appears highly unlikely
The period ahead of a presidential runoff on 18 May is likely to be peaceful. Voting in the first round on 4 May was calm, and the response to far-right candidate George Simion’s first-round win (41% of the vote) has been muted so far. Pro-EU activists are planning a march in Bucharest on 9 May, but such gatherings have tended to be peaceful. And we have not seen calls for counter-protests. The main trigger for unrest before the runoff would be if the authorities annul the election, as they did in December after another far-right candidate won the original poll. We have seen no signs that this will occur again.
We have seen nothing to suggest there will be any upheaval ahead of the runoff poll. Organisers of the 9 May pro-EU march have focused on trying to rally public support for Nicosur Dan (Simion’s centrist opponent in the runoff) and the demand that Romania continue its integration with Europe. As far as we can tell, they have not raised concerns about the integrity of the first round. Supporters of Simion (and Calin Georgescu, whose victory in November was annulled) have posted celebratory messages on social media since Sunday. We anticipate they will hold a largely peaceful campaign rally in the coming days.
The main trigger for violence or unrest before 18 May is if electoral officials try to cancel the outcome of the 4 May poll. The electoral authorities annulled Georgescu’s first round win in December, citing a ‘Russian influence campaign’. But this time around they said that ‘all democratic standards were met’. In the very unlikely case the latest election is also cancelled, we would anticipate at least several hundred right-wing activists to protest violently at government buildings in Bucharest, based on their protests in recent months.
Annulling Simion’s victory would probably also heighten the moderate threat of terrorism from right-wing extremists. On 7 December, the authorities detained 20 men they alleged were planning to foment ‘disorder’ in Bucharest over the annulment of the November election. Although the police are reportedly closely monitoring other right-wing extremist groups, we anticipate that cancelling Simion’s victory this time would motivate sympathisers to mount acts of violence.
Image: Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on 4 May 2025, in Bucharest, Romania. Photo by Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images.
