Skip to main content

Political Risk

Forecasting risks in frontier markets

Consultative political risk management services for investors in emerging markets

What we offer

Dragonfly’s advisory team provides customised security intelligence and analysis to help decision-makers manage business risk.

We help clients to make confident, informed political risk management decisions. Our guidance fuses analysis across the spectrum of insurable and uninsurable political risks with forecasts and intelligence from the highest quality sources.

The expertise and professionalism of our political risk analysts are perfectly complemented by the quality of intelligence services. With the global reach and knowledge of our regional experts, our global political risk consultancy is able to provide the answers that clients need to secure the integrity and security of their investments. Our rigour and understanding of complex political conditions underpin our reputation as a leading political risk consultancy team.

Why partner with us

Clients who partner with Dragonfly benefit from our expertise, methodology and proactive approach.

  • Expertise: Our team of specialists possesses a deep understanding of ground-level political drivers and broader geopolitical risks, allowing us to provide comprehensive insights into complex global challenges.
  • Methodology: We use qualitative and quantitative approaches, along with empirical data from expert human sources and extensive research, to develop tailored risk models. Our data-driven approach ensures precise analysis that empowers clients to make informed decisions.
  • Approach: From market entry studies to specific project assessments, we collaborate closely with stakeholders to understand your business inside and out.

Key features:

  • Threat assessments
  • Risk analysis and modelling
  • Forecasting and planning
  • Expert testimony and advice
Case study: Assessing risk in Lebanon

An investment bank was considering a significant position in Lebanon; however, it was concerned about the country’s political volatility and found it challenging to get a clear picture of its future.

Our team was tasked with answering several highly specific questions concerning political risk, security and economics in Lebanon, as well as on the potential impacts on the bank’s interests in the country. Having devised many questions concerning the intentions, decision-making and political leanings of key stakeholders and political players, we undertook high-level source enquiries.

In a short space of time, we were able to provide direct answers and paint a detailed picture of the emerging political landscape.

Case study: Intelligence gathering in Papua New Guinea

A major extractives client investing in Papua New Guinea commissioned our team to undertake three separate studies into different areas of their political risk exposure, supplemented by ongoing intelligence collection and monitoring.

The studies, which drew heavily on human-sourced intelligence due to the paucity of open-source information, covered assessments on political stability, social stability, conflict risk and macroeconomic risk, as well as detailed intelligence for community engagement decision-making.

Based on our reporting, our client was able to actively limit its business exposure, anticipate national and local disputes and make vital decisions based on sound strategic intelligence and expert analysis.

Contact us about our intelligence and advisory services