Relations between Algeria and Morocco have deteriorated over the past few years
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 10 January 2025.
- Although we see few indications that these will improve in 2025, a conflict between the two countries is very unlikely over that time frame
- Regardless, both countries are likely to diplomatically undermine each other, including by complicating visa procedures and work permits for nationals from the opposite country
Relations between Algeria and Morocco are severely strained. Notably in November, the Moroccan foreign minister said there are ‘signs that demonstrate Algeria’s will to start a war in the region’. Both sides have increased military spending over the past year and appear committed to further militarisation. They have also shown little to no intent to resolve key disputes, including over Western Sahara. Therefore, we assess border skirmishes are reasonably probable over the next year and further diplomatic spats between the two are likely in 2025, but war remains highly unlikely.
Strained diplomatic relations
Algeria and Morocco have long sought to undermine each other diplomatically. They vie for influence in North Africa and the Sahel. And tensions are exacerbated by their positions on the status of Western Sahara. While Morocco claims sovereignty, Algeria supports the territory’s independence and backs the Polisario Front, the main Sahrawi independence movement. Algeria severed diplomatic ties in 2021, with Algiers accusing Rabat of supporting a separatist group. Neither has subsequently shown much intent to improve relations.
Diplomatic actions likely to affect foreign businesses
Tit-for-tat diplomatic actions are likely over the coming years. That is notably driven by both countries trying to get the Western Sahara on the international diplomatic agenda. The issue has attracted very little urgency among the international community, including from the United Nations. But Algeria took up a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council on 1 January, and it is very likely to use its position to pressure Morocco on the issue. Meanwhile, Morocco is eying renewed diplomatic backing from the US under incoming President Donald Trump.
This has already had implications for business. Foreign businesses from countries such as France and Spain that do not support Algeria’s position on Western Sahara are likely to face arbitrary red tape. For example, in October 2021, Algeria chose not to renew a gas pipeline contract that had supplied Algerian natural gas to Spain via Morocco. According to Reuters, Algeria has also imposed restrictions on imports and exports for French firms in recent months, purportedly due to France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
Both countries are also likely to complicate visa procedures and restrict work visas. This has so far affected only Moroccan and Algerian nationals. There have been several reported incidents of travellers from either country being harassed or delayed at airports in both countries, and some have been denied entry. In September, Algeria also reinstated visa requirements for Moroccan nationals. That said, there are no current indications that either side is looking to expand this to other nationals based on their respective diplomatic positions.
Further militarisation likely
In our assessment, a sustained war between Algeria and Morocco remains very unlikely in the coming years. They still seem to prefer diplomatic and proxy engagements over direct military confrontation. That is even in times of heightened tensions. For example, in 2022, Algeria said Morocco killed three Algerians in airstrikes near the border but did not respond militarily. Nor did Morocco in 2023, when Algeria killed two dual nationals who strayed into Algerian waters on Jet Skis in September 2023.
That said, limited and isolated armed skirmishes between Algeria and Morocco are reasonably probable over the coming years. That is not least since Morocco and Algeria seem intent on raising their defence postures over the coming years. Both countries significantly increased their defence budgets in 2024. In November, Algeria allocated $25.1 billion to defence in 2025 (from $21 billion in 2024), and Morocco allocated $13.32 billion in 2025 (from $12.4 billion in 2024).
Also, Morocco is likely to continue air and drone strikes against smugglers, Polisario Front positions and Sahrawi refugee camps along the border area, especially in the tri-border area that it shares with Mauritania and Algeria. In the past, Morocco has claimed that Sahrawi refugee camps near Tindouf in southwestern Algeria serve as operational, recruitment and training bases for the Polisario Front.
The Polisario Front is also likely to seek to increase military attacks as Morocco gains more and more diplomatic success over its claims to Western Sahara. A low-intensity conflict has been ongoing there since a ceasefire between the Polisario Front and Morocco broke down in November 2020. The Polisario Front claims near-daily armed attacks, but very few of these can be verified. Because Algeria supports the Front, a significant escalation in the group’s operations would contribute to worsening relations with Morocco.
Indicators for military escalation
This all means that we expect the low risk of conflict to rise over the coming years. Therefore, we have outlined several measures and/or actions that each country could plausibly take that would – at least in our analysis – make a limited armed conflict between the two countries probable.
Actions Morocco could take:
- Frequent (several over a few weeks) military strikes on Algerian trucks in Mauritania
- Cause civilian casualties in military operations in Western Sahara
- Accuse Algeria of supplying arms to the Polisario Front
- Attack a Sahrawi refugee camp in Algeria
Actions Algeria could take:
- Increase support and military aid for the Polisario Front in Western Sahara
- Threaten to intervene militarily to protect the Polisario front amid an escalation between the group and Morocco
- Arrest or kill Moroccan citizens it claims are spying or conducting criminal activities on the border
Short of a conflict breaking out, Algeria and Morocco are almost certain to continue to make tit-for-tat hostile statements against each other over the coming months. This is as recent statements by both sides suggest they have little hope – or desire – for tensions to ease, probably due to their incompatible goals.
Image: Moroccan security forces stand guard as Moroccan farmers protest in the city of Figuig on 18 March 2021, after Algerian authorities expelled the date growers from the Algerian territory, a border area they are traditionally authorised to farm. Photo by Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images.
