Brazil | Security assessment of Carnival festivities

• While the pre-Carnival season has started, the main festivities in these locations will take place from 27-28 February to 5-8 March
• In our assessment, neither major incidents of gang violence nor large-scale protests are likely; petty street crime will almost certainly be the main security risk in all major cities

Carnival season in Brazil is likely to pass off without any major security incidents. The largest celebrations are in Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Salvador. The official Carnival festivities will start on 27-28 February and end on 5-8 March. Neither the local authorities nor foreign governments have issued warnings of any threats to the events, and we have not seen any calls for protests during that period. Petty crime will almost certainly be the main security risk in all locations.

No specific warnings from foreign governments

Most Western governments’ travel advisories do not appear to single out upcoming Carnival festivities as being particularly dangerous. The US embassy issued a security alert on 3 February regarding Carnival and drugging-dating scams. But this appears to be mostly precautionary. It reaffirms the US’ standing advice by reminding citizens to remain ‘vigilant’ during the Carnival period; it does not warn about any specific risks around the festivities.

Canada, France and the UK all warn about the risk of drink spiking and scams using dating apps when travelling to Brazil. The UK in particular warns that criminals target large events such as Carnival, while Canada points out that petty crime increases around the festivities. But this advice is generic; neither has issued any specific warning for Carnival this year.

Crime likely to worsen in Salvador and Recife

Of the largest Carnival festivities, we assess the least safe will be those in Salvador (Bahia state) and Recife (Pernambuco state). These cities are generally more dangerous than other large cities. Crime figures from the Forum of Public Security 2024, which compiles state-level crime statistics, show that Salvador has the highest homicide rate of all Brazilian state capitals at 66.4 (per 100,000 inhabitants), while Recife’s is the fifth highest (at 44.7). Our security and safety risk rating for both is high.

Recife and Salvador tend to become more dangerous during Carnival. It is largely because most celebrations in these places are free street parties, where revellers follow the performing bands through the city streets. Visitors are therefore more exposed to criminals than those who attend the ticketed parades in Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo. The map shows the areas of each city where some of the main street parties and parades will take place.

The French government’s standing travel advice backs up this view; it warns that northeastern states in Brazil – including Bahia and Pernambuco – have some of the highest homicide rates in the country. Indeed, the French government warns that ‘almost the entire city [of Salvador] is marked by high levels of insecurity’. Our analysis of state crime data also seems to corroborate this; there were spikes in street crimes during February 2023 and 2024 in both cities. Users of usually reliable online travel blogs have also mentioned experiencing petty crime during Carnival in both locations despite notable police numbers.

No worsening of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo’s security risks

In contrast, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are likely to be safer during Carnival than northern state capitals. These cities are among the safest in Brazil; official crime figures indicate Sao Paulo has the fourth lowest homicide rate (at 15.4) and Rio the tenth lowest (at 21.3).

In addition, the police do not typically carry out raids against organised crime – particularly in Rio de Janeiro – during Carnival. In turn, gangs have similarly tended to avoid mounting attacks during major events in recent years. In the past, gangs have agreed to informal ‘truces’ with rivals and the police during major events because they fear retaliation from the police. This means that the risk of exposure to gang-related violence will probably be low during Carnival.

The number of reported crimes there in February 2023 and 2024 were lower than in January and March of those years. But that was not the case in Rio de Janeiro; official statistics do not point to a change in the crime rate there during Carnival. Anecdotal evidence on travel blogs also suggests that attendees should be aware of petty crime in large crowds during the Rio Carnival.

Pickpocketing remains the main risk

Regardless of location, petty opportunistic crime is highly likely to be the main security risk visitors face during Carnival in Brazil. Western governments’ standing travel advice from Canada, France, the UK and the US all warn about the risk of crime, particularly in crowded areas and at night, when assaults and armed muggings are most common. All of them warn travellers to avoid low-income areas, including guided tours to favelas, where there is minimal or no police presence. Both petty and violent crimes are extremely frequent there at all times.

The French government specifically advises travellers to avoid areas that are relatively safe during daytime but empty out at night, such as Boa Viagem in southern Recife. Government advisories also warn against walking alone on beaches, including in Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana and Ipanema, and isolated areas, particularly at night. But even during the daytime, bag-snatching and mobile phone thefts happen frequently, including in well-policed tourist and historic areas. The French government particularly notes this is the case in Pelourinho and Santo Antonio districts in Salvador, for instance.

All these governments’ travel advisories warn visitors not to carry valuables conspicuously, such as jewellery, watches and cameras, and to avoid using mobile phones in the street. The Canadian government in particular notes that drive-by snatching of valuables by criminals on motorcycles happens often, especially in Sao Paulo.