Canada | Foreign disinformation around election

Foreign states are likely to step up disinformation campaigns targeting diaspora communities in Canada leading up to a federal election on 28 April

• China and India have been the countries most actively mounting influence campaigns targeting Canada in recent years, according to the Canadian authorities
• We doubt that online foreign interference will have a major impact on the overall outcome of the election – it seems to be mostly targeting diaspora groups rather than gaining widespread traction on Canadian social media

Foreign states are likely to step up disinformation campaigns in Canada around a federal election scheduled on 28 April. China and India seem to be the most prolific state sponsors of such campaigns against Canada, according to recent statements from the authorities. And there has been rising public awareness and concern in Canada over foreign interference in electoral processes in recent years.

Still, we doubt that these will impact the overall outcome of the election or trigger major protests. China and India seem to be focusing their influence campaigns on diaspora communities there rather than the wider public, based on recent reports from the Canadian government and watchdog groups. We have also recently seen election-related mis- and disinformation circulating on social media, including narratives that:

• Allege ties between Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein
• Disparage specific candidates running in local MP races
• Claim that the election results will be rigged through the use of Dominion vote-counting machines

But these do not seem to be gaining much traction online, based on our monitoring and reports from watchdog groups.

Foreign interference unlikely to compromise election

We assess that foreign interference is highly unlikely to affect the outcome of the federal election. The Canadian government published the results of a public inquiry into foreign electoral interference in January 2025. It found that foreign interference during the 2019 and 2021 federal elections ‘did not undermine the integrity of electoral systems or which party came into power’. And despite widespread disinformation targeting elections in Europe last year, the Turing Institute (the UK’s national data science research institute) found no evidence of it impacting election results. Foreign states have probably not substantially improved the effectiveness of their influence campaigns since last year.

We have also seen conspiracy theories circulate online in recent weeks casting doubt on the integrity of the upcoming election. These include claims that the government agency in charge of elections is trying to hurt Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre’s chances of being elected, and that Dominion voting machines are not secure (these are not used in Canada). But these do not appear to be especially widespread nor the focus for state-sponsored disinformation campaigns, based on monitoring from several research groups and statements from the Canadian authorities.

China most likely to target Canadian-Chinese communities

China will probably be the main state actor seeking to interfere in the election. It has been the most active perpetrator of foreign interference targeting Canada’s democratic institutions in recent years, according to the Canadian authorities in a January 2025 report. In the same report, Canadian security and intelligence officials say China is generally ‘party agnostic’ – it supports those it believes will be helpful to its economic and geopolitical interests (e.g. promoting favourable trade policies, not condemning human rights abuses in China) regardless of party affiliation.

Beijing is likely to ramp up influence campaigns disparaging Canadian politicians, journalists and business leaders who publicly criticise the Chinese government in the coming weeks. It did so during the Liberal Party leadership contest in February. Then, Beijing mounted a disinformation campaign against a candidate that had recently criticised China’s trade practices, according to a March statement from the Canadian foreign ministry. It also created deepfakes of multiple Canada-based online commentators to undermine their credibility.

But we anticipate these campaigns will have little impact on the opinions of Canadian voters generally. So far this year, known cases seem to have focused heavily on Canadian-Chinese communities. Many of them, including one disclosed last week by the Canadian authorities, are Chinese-language campaigns on WeChat, which Chinese speakers predominantly use. And on 11 April, the Canadian Digital Media Research Network (CDMRN), a research group tracking election disinformation, found ‘limited evidence’ that these posts were widely circulated among Canadians on social media.

India likely to target diaspora communities

India is also likely to mount influence campaigns in the coming weeks. It is the second-most active country engaging in electoral interference in Canada, based on a recent conversation with our contact, a disinformation researcher working with the Canadian government. Local news citing official sources said on 25 March that Indian state agents helped raise money for Poilievre during the Conservative Party leadership race in 2022. And India has mounted anti-Sikh disinformation campaigns targeting Hindu communities in Canada in recent years, according to investigations by NGOs and Canadian media.

Disinformation unlikely to lead to major protests

We doubt that foreign disinformation will incite protests around the election. India-backed influence campaigns have plausibly contributed to unrest in the past. Canada’s public broadcaster, CBC News, identified a wave of anti-Sikh misinformation leading up to riots between Sikh and Hindu activists in British Columbia and Ontario last November. But these occurred during a time of heightened diplomatic tensions between those communities due to the killing of a Sikh leader in Canada by alleged Indian intelligence agents. In the absence of a similar flashpoint, the risk of unrest remains low.

Probable attempts to prolong Canada-US tensions

Hostile states will probably seek to exploit anti-US sentiment in Canada, arising from currently high Canada-US diplomatic tensions. In addition to mounting influence campaigns aimed at specific communities, foreign states such as China and Russia often seek to deepen political polarisation in the countries they target. Senior Canadian officials have said in recent weeks that they expect these countries to attempt this around the election. China and Russia would have a strategic interest in deepening the current rift between Canadians and Americans to hurt bilateral cooperation on security and trade issues.

We have seen deepfakes about the Canada-US trade war on social media, as well as widespread calls in Canada for boycotts of US products in recent weeks. We are unable to independently verify if specific social media posts are authentic or are part of an influence campaign. Many of these posts are from authentic Canadian users, but hostile states will also probably amplify these narratives. Russia already targets Western corporations in its influence campaigns, according to a recent report from a US-based think tank. Similar disinformation campaigns would plausibly encourage more widespread or prolonged boycotts of US firms in Canada.