Denmark | Gang violence in Copenhagen worsening

• Violence appears to be mainly concentrated in the suburbs of the capital, generally away from business areas

Criminal gang activity in Copenhagen, particularly targeted gun violence, appears to be worsening. The local authorities say that such crime is driven mainly by drug-related gang rivalries, rather than opportunistic targeting of civilians. Based on that, and the locations of gang activity, such crimes are likely to remain confined to low-income suburbs of the Danish capital. While this is generally a low risk for business operations and travellers, there have been a few recent incidents in more central areas popular with tourists and businesspeople, such as Frederiksberg and Osterbro.

This appears to be part of a wider trend in worsening gang crime in Scandinavia; the Norwegian government recently also expressed concern about ‘Swedish gangs taking hold’ in the country, especially in Oslo. But, in our analysis, the threat posed by these gangs in Norway for now does not seem to be as acute as it is in the rest of Scandinavia, particularly in large Swedish cities, including Gothenburg, Malmo and Stockholm.

A marked rise in targeted violence this year

Organised and violent gang crime in Copenhagen has been gradually worsening over the last decade or so, but especially in the last few months. On 21 August at a press conference with his Swedish counterpart, the Danish justice minister reiterated that between April and August, there had been at least 25 episodes (incidents and plots) of criminal groups hiring ‘young Swedish’ citizens to carry out attacks in Denmark. This compared with 21 cases of gang-related shootings recorded by the police in all of 2023.

Gang crime will probably continue to worsen, at least for the rest of this year. This is despite the government and police recently saying that they want to expand their abilities to decrypt messages on relevant channels and chats, use facial recognition technology, and ‘put pressure’ on social media platforms where ‘criminal youths are hired’. Officials’ remarks suggest such initiatives will probably take time to implement; some message decryption and use of facial recognition will require amendments to existing laws. Police statements also suggest that solving cases is difficult, as many witnesses fear reprisal for cooperating with the authorities.

Crime mostly happens in low-income suburbs

Street gang rivalries are the primary driver of violence, according to the government. While gangs come from both Sweden and Denmark, we have seen no sign of gangs targeting multinational businesses. International media reports in recent months suggest that turf wars between gangs are primarily fuelled by control of the drug trade. But police reports indicate that rivalries are also intertwined with ‘retaliatory’ targeting. There is reportedly an ongoing major feud between the banned street gang ‘Loyal To Familia’ and another (in our view, probably Sweden-based) unnamed gang.

Gang violence in the Danish capital seems to be partly linked to gang activity in Sweden, particularly Malmo. According to Danish police, ‘young Swedish citizens’ have been hired by gangs, often through social media apps, to carry out several attempted attacks on rival gang members. Those include shootings and occasionally grenade attacks; on 10 August, two Swedes were arrested for attempted murder while crossing the Oresund bridge between Copenhagen and Malmo. In our analysis, this is probably in part because gang networks are more established in Malmo and criminal punishments in Sweden for juveniles are generally more lenient.

Gang violence tends to occur in low-income urban suburbs and neighbourhoods. This is particularly in the northwestern and southwestern outskirts of the city, in and around Norrebro, and on rare occasions in the commune of Christiania. Those are generally away from business and tourist areas. Our monitoring of press reports this year points to a noticeable increase in gang activity and violence outside of such areas, such as at public sports grounds, parks and kiosks. But the justice ministry recently said that the majority of shootings still take place in so-called ‘prevention areas’ (see map), particularly around public housing estates after dark.

Gang attacks tend to involve firearms, and occasionally small bombs and vehicle burnings. These have been gangs’ established tactics in recent years in Scandinavia. And we doubt they will be able to significantly improve their capabilities this year, not least due to police efforts to contain gangs in recent months. Those include expansions in patrols, response and stop-and-search teams, and further cooperation with other security and intelligence services, namely those in Sweden.

Risk for businesses likely to remain low

There is a generally low risk of bystanders getting caught up in gang violence, in our assessment. We have seen no reported incidents of such groups directly targeting major international businesses or carrying out attacks indiscriminately. But many of those recently arrested are youths who, according to local media reports, have had no training and often missed their intended targets. Some of the attacks in recent weeks also occurred in more central areas, such as in a jewellery shop in Frederiksberg and a kiosk on Hans Knudsens Plads in Osterbro.

Incidents in central locations are unlikely to become the norm in the coming months. The local police appear to be putting robust prevention and security measures in place. They extended stop-and-search zones in northwestern suburbs in the past several months. This month, officers from southern Sweden were also permanently posted in Copenhagen (Danish officers are already part of operations in Malmo). And at the press conference on 21 August both ministers said they would try to ‘go after’ gang leaders, even those abroad, who are involved in ‘hiring minors’.

Temporary border controls are plausible

Temporary border controls, particularly on the Oresund Bridge between Copenhagen and Malmo, are plausible but unlikely for now. The Danish justice minister said on 9 August that police would soon increase security inspections of trains crossing the bridge. Nevertheless, when asked by the press on 9 August, the justice minister said that he could not ‘rule out’ temporary border controls in the future.

Any such measures would probably take the form of identity checks or similar procedures. Denmark and Sweden introduced such checks in early 2016 due to concerns over migration. While both Denmark and Sweden are in the Schengen area, temporary border controls may be implemented under exceptional circumstances according to EU law.