Global | Persistent threat from extremists around 7 October

• The Israeli government last week warned its citizens globally about potential attacks around the anniversary
• The ongoing military developments in Lebanon will probably also exacerbate the already-heightened threat, particularly in Europe and North America

The anniversary of the Gaza conflict on 7 October will probably motivate extremists to mount attacks in the coming weeks. As far as we have seen, only the Israeli government has warned its citizens globally about potential attacks around the anniversary. We have not seen any specific mention of the anniversary in the online extremist and jihadist forums we monitor. But there have been frequent attacks and plots globally seemingly motivated by the conflict over the last year. We assess that the threat remains most heightened in Western Europe and North America.

A lone actor using crude tactics, targeting busy areas, places of worship, and Jewish/Israeli individuals is the most probable form of attack in our assessment. This is based on incidents and plots since the start of the war. Iran would probably also use its proxies to try to carry out covert operations, such as targeted assassinations, against Israeli or Jewish interests. Hate crime against Jews, Muslims and pro-Palestine activists by antisemitic, Islamophobic and right-wing extremists are also probable in the coming weeks.

Security warnings largely precautionary so far

The National Security Council of Israel on 25 September issued an updated advisory on terrorist threats against Israelis abroad. This was the latest in a series of regular security warnings issued ahead of important holiday periods. It said that the 7 October anniversary of Hamas’ attack in Israel ‘is expected to be a significant landmark for terrorist organisations’ and that ‘an increase in efforts to carry out terrorist attacks against Israeli/Jewish targets abroad is expected’.

Israel’s recent message is largely precautionary, in our analysis. It made particular reference to Hamas and other jihadist groups, advising of both potential group-planned actions and individual threats. But it did not cite any specific threats around 7 October or mentioned any countries or cities where it assesses attacks are particularly likely. It issued this alert ‘in preparation for the Tishrei holidays [this month], when hundreds of thousands of Israelis are expected to go abroad’.

We have not yet seen any specific warnings by other major Western governments about the terrorism threat around the 7 October anniversary. The US and the UK governments have previously issued security alerts about the heightened terrorism threat against Western interests globally since the start of the war, but have not made any similar statements in recent days about the anniversary.

We have also not seen any specific calls by terrorist groups for attacks around the anniversary. Most of the recent calls for attacks against Israel we have seen in the jihadist channels we monitor have been in reaction to the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, last week. Islamic State (IS) in its official newspaper on 26 September made a renewed call for attacks on Jewish people around the world. But the group has made such calls repeatedly this year, and its recent message did not cite 7 October specifically.

Persistent motivation among extremists in Western countries

We assess there is a strong possibility that the anniversary of the conflict will motivate extremists to mount terrorist attacks and other acts of violence in the coming weeks. This includes jihadists, Iran-linked actors and Islamophobic and antisemitic individuals and groups.

The intent among those actors to mount attacks has been elevated since last October. We have recorded several attacks and plots directly motivated by the Israel-Hamas war. The national authorities in many countries, including in the UK and Germany, have said that the risk of extremist attacks has risen since the conflict started. The ongoing military developments in Lebanon will probably sustain the threat, based on the reactions and discourse we have seen from extremists online.

We continue to assess that the terrorism threat is particularly heightened in Western Europe and North America, and will remain so in the coming weeks, at least. Our terrorism threat levels are currently high to severe in most countries across these regions. Based on our data and our monitoring of extremist propaganda and activity, we assess the terrorism threat to be highest in France (severe), Germany (severe), Belgium (severe), the UK (severe), and the US (high).

Any attacks in Western countries would probably be one-off incidents involving lone actors and stabbings, shootings, arson attacks, or vehicle rammings. These would target busy public spaces, places of worship, Jewish/Israeli individuals and sites, government buildings and diplomatic missions. The national authorities in these countries have proven capable of foiling most major plots in recent years, making mass-casualty incidents unlikely (but still plausible). In Muslim-majority countries, where Islamist groups are often much more capable, access to Western diplomatic interests, let alone Israeli ones, is very restricted.

Threat from Iranian proxies

We continue to assess that Iran and its proxies (particularly Hezbollah) are highly motivated to mount covert operations, such as targeted assassinations, against Israeli or Jewish interests outside the MENA region in the coming weeks and months. Tehran had vowed retaliation against Israel following a series of assassinations in July, and renewed its threats following Hassan Nasrallah’s killing on 27 September. Despite the underlying threat, we have not seen any signs of potential attacks around 7 October. There have been no new reports of warnings by foreign security agencies of possible attacks by Iran-backed actors in the last few days.

Germany, Kenya, Turkiye, the UK, the US, Cyprus and Belgium are where we believe there is a reasonable possibility of an attack. This is based on several factors, including the reported attacks and plots there since 2012. Iran would probably use local proxies to mount small-scale attacks on high value targets, such as Israeli businessmen, in major cities. But the authorities in most countries have proven capable of foiling most of these. Based on reported details of recently foiled plots, the would-be perpetrators in most cases aim for targeted attacks rather than for maximum casualties.

Hate crime targeting Jews and Muslims

Hate crimes and violence against Jews and Muslims are also very likely over the coming weeks. The authorities in most Western countries, including the US, UK and France, have advised of a significant increase in the occurrence of such incidents since the start of the conflict. The majority of these have involved vandalism and arson attacks targeting synagogues, Jewish businesses and residences, as well as verbal abuse and assault of Jewish and Muslim individuals. We have also seen reports on social media of physical intimidation of people wearing identifiable pro-Palestine insignia over the past year by right-wing extremists, particularly in the US.