Haiti | Gang threats to civil aviation

• Amid a deliberate campaign of violence against the government, it appears that gangs intentionally shot at three planes on 11 November
• With gangs seeking to re-assert power over the transitional government, we forecast that the current campaign of violence will continue for the rest of this year, at least

A period of acute gang violence in the capital Port-au-Prince that began on 11 November is ongoing. On 12 November the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) banning all US air carriers and commercial operators from flying into Haiti until 12 December. It did so after planes operated by three US air carriers were hit by gunfire over Port-au-Prince the previous day. It appears that gangs intentionally shot at those planes. But even if they simply happened during gun battles, the incidents demonstrate gangs’ willful disregard for civilians and reflect the highly volatile situation in the city.

Intense gang violence will probably continue into early 2025, at least. Gang leaders appear to be deliberately seeking to undermine ongoing attempts by the transitional government to assert some authority. Gang leaders began the campaign seemingly in response to the transitional council sacking of the prime minister. The security forces, supported by a tiny contingent of foreign troops, appear mostly unable to contain the gangs. Although on current indications they are able to maintain the airport security perimeter, roads to the airport are unsecured.

Limited air operations amid wave of gang violence

Air traffic service at Por-au-Prince’s Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) will be suspended until at least until 18 November, international press reporting suggests. This means that it is extremely difficult to get into or out of Haiti. Cap-Haitien airport is still open; a UN spokesperson said on 12 November that all flights will be redirected there. But there are only a few flights available; an online flight-tracking service showed two flights scheduled to depart from that airport today, 14 November. And at least one international airline has indefinitely suspended flights into the city.

Even beyond next week, flight availability will be very limited. An FAA NOTAM now prohibits US commercial flights from landing or taking off until 12 December – and given insecurity we suspect that will be extended. At least one US airline has already suspended its Port-au-Prince flights until mid-February. And the handful of Caribbean-based airlines that service PAP, like Sunrise Airways, have issued travel alerts stating that their operations are ‘suspended until further notice’.

Targeting of airlines seems to have been deliberate

The available information strongly suggests that gangs deliberately shot at the planes on 11 November. That is based on three things: specific details of the three reported incidents, that they happened during a threatened gang escalation, and because these groups have targeted aviation before. First, all three reported incidents happened in quick succession in daylight hours (between 1000-1200hrs). One of the planes was also struck with multiple bullets, suggesting that whoever fired wanted to hit it.

Second, at least two gang leaders had threatened the government with a campaign of violence on that day. And finally, armed groups have targeted the airport before, notably in March during an attempt to prevent the then prime minister from landing in the country. Since then the security forces have reinforced the airport perimeter. While that has made it harder for gangs to attack the site itself, it has plausibly made planes taking off or landing a more appealing target instead. Doing so is facilitated by gangs controlling large areas surrounding the airport.

It is still plausible that the recent incidents were accidental; at least one flight was over areas where there were ongoing clashes between the gangs and security forces when it was struck. Irrespective, we assess that armed groups would again try to target airlines, particularly amid any intense conflict with the government. Their weapons are mainly handguns, semi-automatic rifles and snipers, and machine guns, so they would only attack low-flying or parked aircraft.

Access to airport very difficult despite deployments there

For now, we have seen nothing to suggest that gangs want to take control of the airport. But should they try to do so, the security forces would very likely prioritise protecting the airport infrastructure. This is because – when open – it is the main entry point for much-needed humanitarian assistance into the country. International media outlets reported on 12 November that security forces in armoured vehicles are currently stationed outside the airport and are carrying out patrols in the area.

The areas surrounding the airport will almost certainly remain very dangerous for several more months, at least. A project to demolish hundreds of surrounding buildings to prevent these from being used as hideouts for gang members is yet to be completed, according to a usually-reliable Haitian outlet. And the area in the immediate vicinity also remains volatile. The US embassy said in a security alert published on 12 November that the area around the airport is ‘unstable and outbreaks of violence near the airport could occur’.

Acute gang violence ongoing in Port-au-Prince

Port-au-Prince will almost certainly remain extremely dangerous into 2025. There were at least 20 armed clashes and more roadblocks on 11 November, according to a UN official cited in the press. This is consistent with photos and reports published by local Haitian news outlets in recent days. The current wave of violence seems to be in response to the transitional council sacking the prime minister on 10 November. And while the new prime minister said on 12 November that restoring security was a top priority, he did not specify any details about this.

We doubt that the Haitian or foreign security forces will end the campaign of violence quickly. A similar campaign of gang violence in the capital earlier this year disrupted daily life for at least two months. With a new prime minister leading the country, gangs probably see this as an opportunity to shape the direction and shape of the new administration. We suspect their main goal is to deter the new administration from restarting operations to push the gangs out of Port-au-Prince or interfering with their illicit activities, particularly extortion, kidnap and arms smuggling.

Even after the gangs end this campaign of violence, they will almost certainly remain capable of mounting others into 2025. The Kenya-led mission, which began in June, has so far failed to dislodge gangs from areas of the capital they control or improve the situation generally, its main priority. And while 600 additional Kenyan police officers are scheduled to arrive in Haiti next week, we doubt that this will help the current situation, given that even then the security forces will remain understaffed and underresourced.