Iraq | Spillover of Iran-Israel conflict now reasonably likely

• Several pro-Iran groups in Iraq have issued statements in support of Iran, but said that they would only join the war if the US became directly involved
• In a scenario of survival, Iran and its proxies would probably take more brazen actions, such as striking US military or diplomatic assets, irrespective of the fallout

There is a reasonable chance that the conflict between Iran and Israel will expand into Iraq in the coming week. Military posturing and comments by President Trump in the past 24 hours suggest that US involvement in the conflict is becoming probable. This is particularly if Iran does not shut down its nuclear programme. Although Iran and pro-Iran groups in Iraq have signalled that they are not yet prepared to attack US military or diplomatic assets in the region, they have warned of such attacks should the US enter the war. Washington has warned that it would retaliate against these.

Pro-Iran groups appear hesitant to act

The response to the Israel-Iran war from prominent pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq has been relatively muted so far. Several groups, including Kataeb Hezbollah, have issued statements in support of Iran in recent days. But that group has said that it would only join the war if the US became directly involved. This is probably aimed at avoiding direct targeting by US forces, especially as Iran appears to be looking for diplomatic mechanisms to de-escalate the conflict with Israel.

Another reason pro-Iran groups have not yet entered the conflict is that they have not been attacked. Official statements and rhetoric from Israeli and US officials suggest that the focus of the current campaign is on Iran itself and not its proxy network in Iraq. Military operations by both the US and Israel against pro-Iran groups throughout 2024 were largely aimed at weakening Iran. And given that the Israeli military has operational freedom over Iran at the moment, we doubt they would divert their attention and resources to such groups.

Attacks against US assets in Iraq reasonably likely

There is a reasonable chance that Iran or pro-Iran groups will target US assets in Iraq and elsewhere in the region in the coming week. There are now strong signs that the US is considering intervening in the conflict between Israel and Iran. In the past few days, the US seems to be deploying significant military reinforcements in the region. This includes USS Carl Vinson (CSG) in the Arabian Sea as well as other naval destroyers closer to Israel. We have also observed reports of several refuelling tanker aircraft and F-16, F-22, and F-35 jets moving to the Middle East.

Anticipating an expansion of the conflict to Iraq

We are monitoring several indicators that would suggest that a spillover of the Iran-Israel conflict into Iraq is becoming likely, or potentially imminent. These are in no particular order:

• Pro-Iran groups start to attack non-US sites in northern Iraq (that they claim are clandestine Israeli bases) and in Israel
• Pro-Iran groups issue statements accusing Israel and the US of using Iraqi territory and airspace to refuel or launch attacks against Iran
• The US forces start launching air strikes into Iran
• Iran refuses to shut down its nuclear programme in return for an end to the conflict
• Reports of pro-Iran groups mobilising in Iraq
• The Iraqi government starts to publicly distance itself from potential actions of pro-Iran groups

Major Iranian escalation in Iraq should the regime feel threatened

We assess that any spillover into Iraq would probably not lead to widespread fighting there or impact major cities such as Baghdad. On current indications, Iran and its proxies would probably show restraint in any attacks against US assets in Iraq. That would be to avoid the US launching a full campaign against them or to close down any negotiated end to the conflict.

Nevertheless, should diplomatic efforts to end the conflict fail, we would anticipate Iran’s strategic calculus to shift. This would particularly be so if the US directly intervened in Iran. In a scenario where the survival of the Iranian regime was threatened, Iran and its proxies would probably take more brazen actions, such as striking US military or diplomatic assets in Iraq, Jordan and Syria, irrespective of the fallout.