Israel / Lebanon | Hezbollah calculating retaliation

• On current indications, Hezbollah will probably not go beyond its other reprisals this year; it is likely to fire several hundred projectiles at military sites in north and central Israel

Hezbollah will probably take several days if not weeks to respond to Israel’s ongoing escalation against it. Yesterday, 19 September, the group’s leader described a two-day sabotage attack that blew up thousands of its communication devices as ‘a declaration of war’ by Israel that ‘crossed all red lines’. Hezbollah has since fired over a hundred rockets targeting military sites along the border. This is similar to near-daily attacks by the group since the start of the Gaza war and suggests that Hezbollah does not want to provoke an all-out war. Despite Israel’s recent actions, we still assess that it shares this position.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah has said it will retaliate for the attacks this week. And as we have previously noted, any response will almost certainly carry with it a very high chance of an expansion of the conflict due to a high risk of miscalculation by both sides. We have outlined below several attacks Hezbollah could plausibly mount that, in our analysis, would prompt Israel to escalate the conflict further.

Hezbollah response likely to be restrained

Hezbollah members appear to have gone into ‘lockdown mode’. Lebanese media reports have noted that the group is trying to regroup and assess what will be its next steps. In a speech on 19 September Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, vowed to retaliate.

The available evidence suggests that Hezbollah will try not to rush its response. Nasrallah said yesterday that ‘the reckoning will come’ but described the situation as ‘sensitive and delicate’. Signalling that the group is still considering its response, he also said that he will ‘not speak about a date or time’ of the coming retaliation. Given the recent sabotage attacks and ongoing fears about using electronic devices, we strongly suspect that Hezbollah will need to find alternative ways to communicate any decisions on how to respond to its fighters.

Regardless of timing, we anticipate Hezbollah’s response will probably not exceed the scope or intensity of its other recent retaliations against Israel. In August and April this year, it fired several hundred projectiles, including cruise missiles and armed drones, at Israeli military sites in north and central Israel, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. These were in response to Israel killing several senior commanders in Lebanon and Syria. Based on our understanding of Hezbollah’s capabilities, this is the extent of what the group is capable of once its lines of communication become fully operational again – short of provoking an all-out war.

High chance of miscalculation

Hezbollah’s response will carry a high chance of error and miscalculation, in our assessment. In intensifying cross-border air strikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut earlier today, we strongly suspect that Israel is partly trying to make Hezbollah rush its decision making. A miscalculated retaliation by any Hezbollah fighters would probably justify Israel ramping up its military operations against the group in Lebanon even further.

We have identified several attacks by Hezbollah that, in our estimation, would plausibly provide Israel with such a pretext:

• A Hezbollah projectile hits civilian infrastructure or busy areas in cities or towns, causing civilian casualties
• Hezbollah-linked operatives assassinate a high-profile Israeli political or security figure
• Hezbollah fighters launch an incursion into northern Israel

There are also several indicators that we assess would signal that the Israeli military is preparing to further escalate its actions against Hezbollah:

• Israel closes its airspace, airports and reroutes commercial aircraft
• The authorities imposes movement restrictions for communities in northern and central Israel
• Israel issues Hezbollah an ultimatum, demanding the end of hostilities or to withdraw its troops south of the Litani River
• Israel cuts its diplomatic ties with several countries, including allies, over disagreements related to its military actions against Hezbollah and Hamas
• Israel recalls all reservists
• The Israeli military amasses further troops in the north

Israel preparing for a major conflict with Hezbollah

Regardless of what happens in the coming days, Israel appears to be preparing for the possibility of ground fighting in the north. The Israeli military’s 98th Division, consisting of approximately 10,000-20,000 soldiers, has reportedly been deployed to northern Israel. It mainly entails commandos and paratroopers, which we understand are well-suited for offensive operations, and were used in the invasion of Lebanon in 2006. This division will support the already-deployed 36th Division, probably consisting of at least another 20,000 soldiers.