Kenya | Key analysis of the anti-government movement

An ongoing anti-government movement in Kenya will probably not dissipate quickly.

Nevertheless, we anticipate that the protests will likely be hard to sustain beyond a couple of months. Youth activists have been holding near-weekly, large-scale protests across the country for around a month now. This was initially in response to planned tax rises announced in a now-withdrawn finance bill, which was to be adopted on 1 July. But the movement continues to call for President Ruto to resign and has made this central to its continued activism. This is very unlikely in our judgement.

Ruto has tried to directly address the movement’s main concerns; alongside the withdrawal of the finance bill, his recent sacking of the cabinet is an indication of the measures he is willing to take. These steps – combined with large deployments of security forces, particularly in Nairobi – have subdued protester turnout, but have so far failed to take the momentum out of the rallies fully. On 17 July, the police tried to ban protests in Nairobi. They have said that this is due to safety reasons linked to a lack of credible leadership of the movement, and to organised crime groups infiltrating demonstrations. This has since been overturned by the courts.

We are issuing this summary report of our top-line assessments to reassure clients that we continue to closely monitor the situation, which remains volatile. A wide range of sources, including a security professional based in Nairobi, are used to reinforce confidence in our assessments.

At a glance

• It is likely that anti-government demonstrations of between a few hundred and several thousand will take place in central Nairobi on a near-weekly basis, causing localised disruption and violent clashes with security forces. While the movement will try to replicate these rallies in other cities, it will probably struggle to do so at the same frequency and size as in the capital.
• During any protests, operations in city centres face severe disruption. Businesses will very probably close due to the risks to people and property from looting. And there is a strong probability that travel will be very difficult as security forces close major routes and use cordons to protect key sites. So far, there has been no impact on operations at major airports; on current indications, we assess this is unlikely to change.
• The current size and frequency of protests will probably not be sustained beyond a month or two, in our judgement. It is likely that the movement will struggle to regularly organise the very large protests seen in the first weeks of the unrest.
• Its decentralised nature and lack of clear leadership make Kenya’s protest movement vulnerable to competing strategies, especially in the face of a strong response from the authorities. This has led to smaller-than-expected turnouts during some protests in recent weeks.

Still, we have identified a few triggers below that would, in our assessment, incentivise tens of thousands of people to attend protests countrywide. While more severe restrictions by the authorities are currently unlikely, a return to this level of protesting would also increase the likelihood of the authorities imposing harsher control measures, such as curfews and internet stoppages. These triggers are:

• The political opposition explicitly calls on its supporters to protest across the country
• There are reports of widespread police violence during gatherings
• Ruto implements austerity measures with immediate effect, such as cuts to fuel and fertiliser subsidies