Governments and civil society groups across the region have publicly rejected and condemned Trump’s plans to expel Palestinians from Gaza to neighbouring countries
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 05 February 2025.
- Already high levels of anti-West sentiment are likely to be elevated over the coming weeks
- Large pro-Palestine protests are likely regionwide in the coming days and weeks, and the heightened terrorism threat over the Gaza war remains unchanged
Anti-West (and anti-American) protests are likely in major cities in the Middle East and North Africa in the coming weeks and months. This follows comments made by US President, Donald Trump, on 4 February suggesting a plan that would expel Palestinians from Gaza and the US ‘take over’ the territory. The Gaza war (and US support for Israel) has been a key driver for large protests and boycott campaigns against Western consumer goods. It has also motivated jihadists and individual extremists to attack Western and Jewish interests and people across the region.
Governments and civil society groups across the region have unanimously publicly rejected and condemned Trump’s proposal. That is to ‘resettle’ Gazans to neighbouring countries such as Egypt and Jordan, and for the US to assume an ‘ownership’ role in Gaza to rebuild the territory. Trump made the comments during a visit by the Israeli prime minister to Washington this week. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have all released official statements rejecting the proposal. That said, all restated their commitment to working with the US to reach a ‘permanent peace in the Middle East’.
Pro-Palestine protests likely over the coming weeks
Largely peaceful protests of several thousand people are likely in major cities across the region in the coming days and weeks. In 2024, the largest pro-Palestine protests took place outside US diplomatic missions in Istanbul, Beirut, Baghdad, Amman, Algiers,and Rabat. We have not seen any specific calls for protests this week. But these are usually spontaneous and tend to occur after Friday noon prayers. Isolated incidents, such as rock-throwing at diplomatic buildings, are probable; there have been no reported cases in the past year of diplomatic staff being targeted.
In Egypt, we doubt there will be large or disruptive protests outside the US Embassy in Cairo over the coming weeks. The Egyptian government has a strict ban on large street gatherings, and there is a permanent and heavy security presence around the embassy that makes it extremely difficult for people to approach. Instead, we anticipate that the government will allow limited and controlled gatherings in specified locations. The government reportedly organised buses to the border with Gaza for people to stage a protest there on 4 February; social media footage suggests that a few thousand people participated.
Pro-Palestine protests are likely to recur regionwide throughout 2025. This is because a lasting resolution to the conflict in Gaza is highly unlikely this year, despite a ceasefire holding since 19 January. The size and frequency of these protests will continue to vary and be tied to events in Gaza. In 2024, we observed a steady occurrence of such protests. But turnout at these fluctuated from several hundred to a few thousand people in response to different factors. These include diplomatic developments, such as failed ceasefire deals or Trump’s latest comments. But also in response to mass casualty attacks by Israel against Palestinians.
Targeting of Western businesses during protests
There is a reasonable chance that shop fronts of Western brands across the region will be vandalised over the coming weeks. Since October 2023, such incidents have been largely opportunistic and isolated during protests. But in Iraq, for example, prominent Western restaurants were vandalised several times last year, seemingly by an organised group. However, a sustained campaign of vandalism against Western commercial interests seems improbable, not least because of counter-terrorism laws across the region that allow the authorities to detain those charged with public damage for extended periods.
Boycotts and negative publicity campaigns for Western brands are showing no signs of easing. These emerged soon after the war began in October 2023. But we have not seen anything to suggest that these are intensifying in light of Trump’s comments. These are limited to prominent consumer goods and are organised at a local level. Boycott initiatives have also been used by local brands in places like Egypt, Algeria, and Turkiye to market and promote local products. Direct actions – such as sit-ins or disrupting supply chains – against Western brands by civil society groups remain rare.
Travel risks largely unchanged
We do not anticipate a rise in xenophobia against Americans and Europeans; harassment of Western travellers to the region will probably remain rare. This is largely because the anti-West hostility prevalent regionwide appears to be focused on Western establishment (government and media) support for Israel. But the risk is not negligible, especially for US military and diplomatic personnel. There have been a few examples of this in recent months. In Turkiye, a group, which local press reports described as members of an ultranationalist organisation, assaulted two US soldiers in Izmir on 2 September over US support for Israel.
The moderate to severe terrorism threat across the region is also likely to remain elevated throughout 2025. The conflict in Gaza has been used by jihadist groups throughout 2024 to call for attacks against Western, Christian, and Jewish people globally. But there have also been several incidents of extremists (not affiliated with a terrorist group) killing or attacking Jewish people. Three Jewish people were killed in two incidents in Egypt in October 2023. And the Israeli authorities linked the murder of a Rabbi in Dubai in November 2024 to the Gaza war.
There is also widespread association of any Jewish person with the state of Israel in the region. This means isolated harassment and physical attacks are also probable regionwide. This is especially the case for places like Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkiye, where there are small Jewish communities and religious sites that are frequented by Jewish people. These locations are also holiday destinations for Israeli tourists, although the Israeli government continues to advise against travel to Muslim-majority countries.
Image: Protesters clash with Lebanese security forces outside the US Embassy in Awkar east of Beirut, during a demonstration in solidarity with the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip, on 18 October 2023. Photo by Ibrahim Amro/AFP via Getty Images.
