Middle East | Operational impacts of escalation

• Israel is on high alert and will probably continue to impose movement restrictions and issue updated security guidance in the coming days
• Air travel disruption appears to be the most immediate operational impact for organisations across the wider region

Further Israeli military strikes against Iran are likely in the coming days. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that the preemptive attacks launched earlier today, 13 June, mark the start of a broader operation. The strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior leadership figures. According to international press and social media reports, several high-ranking Iranian military officials were killed. In response, Iran launched more than 100 drones toward Israel, all of which were intercepted outside Israeli airspace. The situation remains highly volatile and further retaliatory actions by both sides are probable over the next few days and weeks.

In light of this, we have made the following changes to our risk ratings:

• Iran: We have raised our countrywide crisis risk level from moderate to severe. Crisis risk levels for Tehran, Isfahan, Bandar Abbas and Shiraz have also been raised from moderate to severe, and from moderate to high for Tabriz and Mashhad. Additionally, we have raised our countrywide interstate conflict risk rating, including all cities, to critical. And we have raised our countrywide security and safety risk level, including all cities, to critical
• Israel: We have raised our countrywide crisis risk level, and for Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa, from high to severe. We have raised our interstate conflict risk level for Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa to severe. And we have raised our countrywide security and safety risk level to high, including for all cities
• Kuwait: We have raised our crisis risk level for Kuwait and Kuwait City from negligible to low
• Qatar: We have raised our crisis risk level for Qatar from negligible to low

This report outlines the operational impacts of this military escalation in the Middle East and provides an overview of government advisories and security alerts.

Israel on high alert

The Israeli authorities will probably continue to impose movement restrictions and issue updated security guidance in the coming days in anticipation of further Iranian attacks. The Israeli defence minister declared a ‘special state of emergency’ earlier today, and the Home Front Command prohibited public gatherings and instructed citizens to limit themselves to ‘essential activity only’. Since then, the IDF has lifted an order for people to stay near shelters, saying that the Iranian drone attack is ‘under control’.

Travelling into or out of Israel is likely to remain challenging, at least for the coming few days. Israel’s civil aviation authority said that Israeli airspace is now closed until further notice. Local media reports citing unnamed security sources say that Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv will probably be closed for at least three to four days. Civilian aircraft have reportedly been evacuated from the airport.

Foreign governments have expressed their concern about the ongoing escalation. The US Embassy in Israel on 13 June advised people to ‘shelter in place’ and said that ‘mortar, rocket, and missile fire, and unmanned aircraft system (UAS) intrusions, often take place without any warning’. It had already limited travel across Israel for government employees and their families. The Australian government today advised against all travel to Israel, citing an ‘increased threat of military and terrorist attacks against Israel’.

Critical safety and security risk in Iran

Israeli military strikes pose a critical risk to safety and security across Iran. So far, the strikes have targeted not only nuclear and military sites but also buildings in major urban centres. These are most likely targeting high-ranking military officials and nuclear scientists and have occurred in central and residential areas of Tehran, for instance. The Australian government on 13 June advised its citizens in Iran to ‘shelter in place’.

Prolonged military strikes on Iran are highly likely to strain health services in the country. The healthcare system already struggles with financial constraints, staffing shortages and infrastructural issues. Our medical services risk level is high. Internet access will almost certainly be limited over the coming weeks; the Iranian Communications Minister said earlier today that the internet is to be temporarily restricted. And we have already seen social media users complain about slow speeds.

Air travel disruption primary regional impact so far

Air travel disruption seems to be the main immediate operational impact in the wider region. Airspace above Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria is currently closed. Most of these closures are in effect until 14 June at the latest. However, we anticipate these to be extended given the high likelihood of further attacks. Several airlines have cancelled or temporarily suspended flights until further notice.

We anticipate localised traffic disruption due to anti-Israeli and anti-war protests in major cities over the coming weeks. This is particularly in Amman, Baghdad and Beirut. We have not seen protests occurring yet, nor calls for protests in the coming days. But the US on 12 June advised its citizens in the region to ‘avoid all demonstrations and large gatherings’ as well as ‘all areas where there is a heavy police presence’.

In Jordan, there is a more than even chance of debris falling due to misfired missiles or from successful interceptions. This is as most Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel overfly Jordan, and these are often intercepted before entering Israeli airspace. The US advised its citizens in Jordan to ‘seek overhead cover and shelter in place until further notice’ in the event of a strike. And the Jordanian authorities instructed citizens ‘not to gather in the streets, approach, or handle any fallen objects until specialised teams arrive’.

Increased threat to Israeli and Jewish interests globally

Israeli and Jewish people and sites will face an elevated harassment and terrorism threat globally, in our assessment. We have noticed spikes in verbal and physical harassment and an increase in terrorist attacks following previous escalations in recent years. In signs of this, the Israeli government said today it will close its embassies worldwide and advised its citizens abroad to take security precautions, such as avoiding ‘displaying Jewish and Israeli symbols in public’. It said that ‘recent developments increase the likelihood that terrorist elements will seek to carry out acts of revenge against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, including civilians’.