Palestine | Israeli occupation of Gaza now likely

• The Israeli prime minister this week ruled out a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and said he will not stop the war
• An Israeli occupation of Gaza will very probably sustain already-high civil unrest and conflict risks regionwide, including in Israel

Israel is likely to expand its ground offensive in Gaza in the coming weeks. The aim would seemingly be to hold territory indefinitely. In the past few days, the Israeli prime minister has ruled out the prospect of a lasting ceasefire, saying that ‘there will not be a situation where we stop the war’. This seems to be irrespective of Hamas releasing hostages being held in Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu said on 13 May that Israel would ‘receive them and then go in’, seemingly in reference to a planned ground offensive in Gaza announced earlier this month. A renewed Israeli ground operation, approved by the cabinet on 4 May, aims to ‘capture’ Gaza and ‘defeat’ Hamas.

A long-term occupation of Gaza would very likely sustain a difficult operating environment regionwide into 2026. Israeli military actions in Gaza since October 2023 have motivated frequent pro-Palestine protests in major regional cities, as well as extremists to mount attacks against Jewish people and interests. It also drives the high threat posed by Houthi missiles and drones against Israel. Any potential expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, which the Israeli prime minister has suggested is ‘inevitable’ as a result of his government’s new plans, would also cause major diplomatic rifts between Egypt, Jordan and Israel. The further bolstering of military presence along the respective borders would be highly likely.

Hostage talks appear stalled

We have seen no indication that a full ceasefire or hostage deal is likely to be achieved in the coming weeks. Israel reportedly said that it would press ahead with a renewed ground offensive in Gaza if one was not reached by 15 May. And although Israeli negotiators have been in Qatar in the past few days for ceasefire talks, Hamas has only been participating indirectly in these. Direct negotiations between the US and Hamas over the past few weeks that secured the release of the last remaining US national held in Gaza on 13 May also suggest a more comprehensive deal is not imminent.

Israel appears to be pushing for a partial deal, which would include the release of a few Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in return for a short pause in fighting. Hamas meanwhile, has publicly demanded a comprehensive deal to end the war. Israel has said it is not in favour of such a deal without it including Hamas disarming immediately and giving up governance of Gaza. But Israel is not engaging regional partners in any alternative governance structures post conflict, not least ones that involve Palestinians.

Long-term occupation of Gaza now likely

A formal Israeli military occupation of most of Gaza now appears likely in the coming months. On 4 May, Israel’s security cabinet approved a plan to gradually reoccupy all of Gaza and hold it indefinitely. A report by the Wall Street Journal on 5 May cited an Israeli official saying that the new Gaza operation involves ‘conquering the strip and holding the territory’. Axios, a usually reliable media outlet, also reported that Israel would move the population into a ‘humanitarian zone’. Alternatively, Palestinians would ‘voluntarily’ leave for other countries. Israel has so far rejected all proposals by regional actors for a Palestinian-led government in Gaza post-conflict.

There have been other indications that Israel is preparing to formally occupy Gaza. Firstly, at the end of April, the Israeli military said it was issuing draft orders for tens of thousands of reservists. According to Israeli media, some reservists will be deployed to operations in Lebanon, Syria and the West Bank. The reservists will replace conscript units, which will be moved south to Gaza. Israel also announced plans this month for a new mechanism that it would control for aid flows into Gaza. This would likely point to Israel taking over, at least partly, governance of the strip.

Start of operation likely after Trump departs region

A renewed Israeli offensive in Gaza will probably start by the end of the month. Despite calling up tens of thousands of reservists to expand its operation in Gaza, such moves tend to take several weeks. And we have yet to see a significant troop buildup on the Gaza border. Several usually-reliable news outlets have also quoted Israeli officials saying that any operation would likely begin after the US president’s ongoing visit to the region. This is due to end on 16 May. However, given that there is no plan for governance in Gaza post-conflict, a prolonged and formal occupation of Gaza is now a likely scenario in the next few months.

Houthi threat remains high

The threat of Houthi attacks against Israel is very likely to remain high. The Houthis’ missile attacks in the past week or so strongly demonstrate that a recently agreed ceasefire with the US to halt attacks in the Red Sea does not stop them from attacking Israel. While the majority of Houthi missiles and drones are intercepted, a Houthi-launched ballistic missile exploded near Ben Gurion airport on 4 May. In any case, we anticipate Israel to continue, if not expand, near-monthly military strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen. The Israeli military issued evacuation orders for three Yemeni ports on 14 May. For more on Houthi threats in the region, see P-YEM-07-05-25.

Israeli operations in Gaza to sustain high civil unrest risks regionwide

A renewed Israeli ground offensive in Gaza that fails to release the remaining hostages will almost certainly sustain the near-daily frequency of anti-government protests in Israel. Large and disruptive anti-war protests in Israel are most probable on the weekends. Most of these are organised by the families of hostages still in Gaza, who demand that the Israeli government do more to secure their release.

In Arab countries, we anticipate near-weekly pro-Palestine protests. Previous developments in Gaza have prompted several thousand people to demonstrate in major cities, particularly after Friday afternoon prayers. Over the past year, these have occurred in Algiers, Amman, Beirut, Cairo, Istanbul, Rabat, and Tunis. Such protests tend to take place outside prominent mosques, union offices and public squares. We also anticipate heightened anti-West sentiment to continue in the event of a long-term occupation of Gaza.

Terrorism threat elevated

A continued Israeli military presence in Gaza will almost certainly sustain the severe terrorism threat in major Israeli cities and the West Bank. The threat mostly stems from armed Palestinian groups in the West Bank and individual extremists. Effective counterterrorism operations and movement restrictions for Palestinians from the West Bank into Israel mean complex attacks are difficult to execute. Most terrorist attacks in Israel over the past year have been stabbings, shootings and car rammings by lone actors.

We also assess that the terrorism threat regionwide will remain elevated this year as a result of Israeli actions in Gaza. Jihadist groups have repeatedly used events in Gaza to motivate sympathisers to carry out attacks against ‘Christian, Jewish and Western’ people and interests. In 2024, three Jewish tourists were killed in two separate shootings in Egypt, and there have been several reports of synagogues being attacked in Tunisia. These incidents were reportedly carried out by people not affiliated with any jihadist groups, highlighting the threat posed by individual extremists.