Palestine | West Bank violence likely to worsen

• The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, announced on 21 January, that the security forces have launched a ‘large-scale military operation’ in Jenin
• Major armed fighting will probably be contained to the north of the West Bank, with business travel to Ramallah and Bethlehem still possible

We anticipate armed violence in the West Bank to intensify in the coming weeks. This is especially in the north around Jenin and Nablus, and near Hebron in the south. The Israeli prime minister announced on 21 January, the start of a ‘large-scale military operation’ in Jenin. In our view, Israel is likely to use the ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that began on 19 January as an opportunity to combat militancy in the West Bank. Still, we assess Ramallah will be largely unaffected by the fighting, with road travel from Jerusalem to the city still possible.

Israel likely to focus on the West Bank

The operation launched today is probably a sign that the Israeli authorities intend to weaken Palestinian militancy in the West Bank. Several high-level Israeli officials have suggested this in their recent remarks. This includes the Israeli Defense minister who said on 8 January that the government will be making security arrangements there to prevent another coordinated attack inside Israel as Hamas conducted from Gaza on 7 October 2023.

Security operations in the West Bank will probably involve days-long raids and weapons seizures at multiple locations simultaneously. In our view, the Israeli military launched the operation in Jenin because this is where Palestinian militants are most active. Further Israeli military operations are likely to take place in Nablus and Tulkarem in the coming months. On 19 January, the Israeli military said it had sent military reinforcements to the West Bank. The ceasefire in Gaza probably provides the Israeli authorities with further motivation and resources to focus on countering militancy in the West Bank.

Heightened terrorism threat in the West Bank and Israeli cities

The already severe terrorism threat in the West Bank is likely to be heightened in the coming month. This is because intensive Israeli security operations in the West Bank often lead to retaliatory terrorist attacks, especially in and around Israeli settlements. Based on attacks in recent months, most incidents would probably involve crude tactics, such as stabbings, shootings and vehicle rammings, targeting public transport and spaces. Most recently, Hamas claimed a shooting on 6 January that killed three Israeli settlers in Al-Funduq, 15km east of Qalqilya, in the northeast of the West Bank.

Events in the West Bank and Gaza have also often motivated militants to mount attacks in Israel, particularly in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. While most of these have been stabbings and vehicle rammings, we have seen more complex attacks in recent years, suggesting that Palestinian militants probably have a support network inside Israel. For instance, Hamas claimed responsibility for a shooting and knife attack in Tel Aviv that killed seven Israelis in October 2024. In November 2022, Palestinian militant groups praised two bombings that killed two Israelis at bus stops in Jerusalem. Our terrorism threat levels for both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are severe.

Movement restrictions likely to continue

Moving between and to cities in the West Bank is likely to become challenging in the coming days and weeks. Travel in the area is already difficult, particularly in areas where militants are most active. We have seen media reports today that the Israeli military has distributed leaflets in the West Bank recommending Israeli and Jerusalem ID holders leave the West Bank due to security operations.

A months-long crisis in the West Bank remains likely

We assess that a months-long crisis, involving widespread unrest, is also likely in the West Bank in the coming months. This would probably be triggered by Israeli security forces or Israeli settlers killing several Palestinian civilians.

Drivers for armed violence in the West Bank have been worsening over the past year, particularly the intensity of Israeli military operations as shown in the graphic. Attacks on Palestinians and their property by Israeli settlers living in the West Bank also now seem to be occurring nearly daily.