Sweden | Gang bombings and shootings increasing

• There were reportedly 32 gang-related explosions countrywide in January, in cities such as Gothenburg, Malmo and Stockholm
• Most incidents occur in disadvantaged suburbs of urban areas, posing a generally low risk to businesses and civilians

Gang-related shootings and bombings in Sweden will probably occur frequently this year. There has been a sustained increase in gang violence over the past few years. This is particularly in recent months; such attacks currently occur several times a week and seem to be driven by drug gang rivalries in deprived suburbs of cities. As such, we assess that these still pose a generally low risk to bystanders or businesses. Still, to reflect the high frequency of violent gang-related incidents, we are raising our organised crime risk level for Gothenburg and Stockholm from low to moderate (it is already moderate for Malmo).

Drug-related gang rivalries driving a rise in violence

Based on official data, there has been a significant rise in gang violence in Sweden in the past few years. This largely involves shootings and small bombings, and at times arson, in and around cities such as Boras, Gothenburg, Linkoping, Malmo, Norrkoping, Orebro, Stockholm and Uppsala (see map above). According to local media reports, gun fatalities more than tripled from 2012 to 2022. The same reports suggest the number of gang-related explosions in Sweden also rose from 149 incidents in 2023 to 317 in 2024.

The pace of gang violence seems to have particularly intensified since November 2024. The country’s prime minister notably said in January this year that there is currently a ‘new wave of violence’ taking place in Sweden. This is evident in police data; there were 27 and 32 attacks in December 2024 and January, respectively, compared with 13 incidents in November 2024.

This recent trend appears to be driven by an internal gang feud and groups changing their tactics. Officials quoted in local media reports suggest there has been a split between two rival factions of the ‘Foxtrot’ gang network. This is one of the major drug trafficking groups in Sweden and is formed of several competing factions. The police also told the press this month that the intensity of attacks is driven partly by gangs shifting tactics towards using bombings to project territorial control and conduct extortion of small businesses in areas where they operate.

Deprived suburbs in major cities most impacted

Gang crime will probably continue to mostly occur in deprived, peripheral urban neighbourhoods this year. This is where most gangs operate. And in a standing advisory on its website, the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRA) describes most gang attacks as ‘retaliatory’, targeting rival gang members. Reflecting this, the justice ministry said last month that at least three-quarters of murders occur in so-called ‘criminal environments’ or ‘especially vulnerable areas’ (see map below), particularly in parks and public housing estates after dark.

There have been a few gang-related incidents in smaller towns and other suburbs in recent months that attracted considerable media attention. This included shootings and bombings in the Stockholm suburbs of Farsta and Upplands-Bro, and the town of Sandviken. But these types of incidents are still relatively rare, based on police data. Statements by the police also suggest most of these attacks were opportunistic, targeting gang members as they were travelling rather than being indicative of gangs expanding operations more broadly in such areas. Doing so would probably trigger a major police response that they generally seek to avoid.

Gang attacks this year are likely to mainly involve firearms and small bombs. These have been their main tactics for several years. And we doubt they will be able to improve their capabilities significantly, not least due to recent police initiatives to increase patrols and interceptions of weapons, as well as intelligence cooperation with Denmark. Such efforts have reportedly prompted some gangs to shift from using dynamite and small grenades or homemade bombs to using fireworks as improvised bombs (often modified to be more powerful); these are more easily accessible.

Risk to businesses and travellers generally low

We have seen no reports of gangs directly targeting major international businesses or their staff in Sweden during attacks in recent years. As gang activities generally occur away from business districts, it is unlikely travellers would be caught up in attacks. The authorities estimate that several dozen bystanders have been inadvertently wounded or killed in gang incidents since 2015. These remain sporadic and isolated, according to BRA. But there were at least two cases of Iran reportedly hiring gang members to target Israeli and Jewish interests in October 2024.

There have also been some international media reports over the past year – some citing insurance companies – of gangs trying to buy out or extort private businesses. This is especially in Malmo. This is reportedly either to facilitate money laundering or as a way to assert their territorial control. The available information suggests this mainly involves small, locally-owned stores with ties to the communities where gangs operate, such as arcades, barber shops, cafes, car washes, gyms, kiosks, nightclubs, and occasionally construction sites.

Major proliferation of gang violence unlikely

We assess that a major intensification of gang violence or escalation involving the military is improbable this year. The army has been assisting the police over the past year to contain gangs. Some domestic media outlets have suggested this has the potential to escalate into broader violence or armed clashes. We disagree. The army’s involvement has been limited to providing logistical and forensic support, rather than direct involvement in security operations. And in January the justice minister told the press that the army cannot engage gangs directly ‘under the current legal system’.

The authorities are likely to struggle to substantially contain gangs in 2025, however. The government made this a ‘priority’ over the past year; it has deported some dual-citizen criminals and proposed allowing the police to wiretap gang-linked minors. Such actions – combined with heightened security operations – will probably lead to some improvement this year. But the police have said they face challenges in prosecuting cases and apprehending criminals. This is also because several gang leaders live abroad, such as in Turkiye which reportedly refuses extradition.