Syria | Pro-Assad violence likely to recur near coast

• These will probably only cause minor operational disruption in Damascus, such as temporary telecom disruption and protest activity

Bouts of days-long fighting are likely to recur in coastal Syria over the coming months. This is between armed groups linked to the ousted Assad regime and government-aligned security forces. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led an operation to suppress coordinated ambushes by pro-Assad insurgents in the coastal governorates on 6 to 10 March. However, they very probably did not fully dismantle the insurgent groups, and therefore renewed attacks aimed at undermining the government remain probable.

Insurgent violence likely to recur in coastal regions

An insurgent movement appears to be emerging in the western governorates of Latakia and Tartus, home to the Assad family’s Alawite community. Gunmen killed at least 13 officers linked to the new authorities in Damascus when they tried to arrest a former Assad regime official on 6 March. From 6 to 10 March, gunmen mounted hit-and-run attacks against government checkpoints and strategic sites, including the Baniyas power plant in Tartus. The authorities said that the attack was ‘coordinated and premeditated’ by up to ‘4,000 fighters’, and sent reinforcements, who clashed with insurgents on a few occasions.

Other armed groups, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), appear to have travelled to the region as well and engaged in large-scale intercommunal violence. Under the pretext of helping the security forces to suppress the pro-Assad insurgent groups, they seemingly sought revenge for Assad-era atrocities, holding the broader Alawite community responsible. Residents cited in regional and international media, as well as a human rights monitor, report that at least several hundred civilians – mostly Alawites – were killed in mass shootings and other forms of violence on 6 to10 March. The HTS-led authorities announced a fact-finding committee and vowed to hold those involved accountable.

The recent ambushes against HTS-aligned security forces probably aimed to destabilise the new authorities. Based on usually-reliable regional media reporting, several different armed groups linked to former Assad regime officials took part. Their limited messaging online suggests they want to ultimately overthrow the HTS-led government or at least limit its influence in Latakia and Tartus. One group, the newly established Military Council for the Liberation of Syria, on 6 March stated it intends to pursue the ‘full liberation of Syrian territory from all occupying and terrorist forces’.

The guerilla-style tactics used by the pro-Assad armed groups mean that it is unclear if the HTS-led force managed to dismantle them. And so recurring bouts of insurgent violence in coastal Syria seem likely over the coming months. Insurgents appear only to have directly clashed a few times with government-aligned forces, meaning that the former intended to avoid sustained direct contact with the security forces to limit losses. Nor have we seen evidence of mass arrests or large weapons seizures. Measures by the government, such as checkpoints on major roads, seem insufficient to curb such groups, as insurgents appear to rely on local networks and circumvent these, based on local media reporting.

Presence of pro-Assad groups is limited beyond coastal regions

We doubt that pro-Assad groups will be able to mount a sustained campaign of attacks outside of the coastal regions, let alone on Damascus. This is because they lack the military capabilities to challenge government-aligned security forces. They are outnumbered by the forces aligned with the new government. And based on local media and a US defence think tank, these groups did not gain access to advanced weapons in the weeks around the ousting of the Assad regime. Still, sporadic attacks targeting security forces and or other government interests are more likely to be carried out by groups such as Islamic State rather than pro-Assad groups.

Limited implications for operations in Damascus

Insurgent attacks in the coastal regions are also probably, at least in part, aimed at stoking sectarian tensions in the rest of the country. This is as the HTS-led authorities seek to consolidate control of the country after more than a decade of civil war. But they appear to have consolidated their grip over the capital over the past three months; so far there have been few violent incidents there. The new authorities are also trying to incorporate armed groups linked with sectarian groups into a state system. They announced such agreements with the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and leaders of the Druze-majority province of Suwayda last week.

During or following any further intercommunal violence in the country, small protests are likely in Damascus. Based on local reporting, protests have mostly been over (perceived) violence or mistreatment of minority groups. These protests seem to have been sparse, however, and largely peaceful. But, on 9 March, up to a few hundred people gathered at Al-Marjeh Square in central Damascus to mourn those killed in the coastal regions. Security forces dispersed the crowd after some of the participants scuffled with counter-protesters.

Temporary cessation of telecommunications and internet services is also a reasonable possibility in the capital during bouts of localised violence elsewhere. Telecom services in Daraa and Suqayda regions temporarily stopped on 9 March after assailants attacked and damaged cables linking Daraa and Damascus.