Anti-government protests in Thailand are likely to become more frequent in the coming few months.
Waning popular support for activist causes
Activists have been trying, but struggling, to regain sufficient momentum to stage large protests in recent months. There have been several small demonstrations in Bangkok this summer after a months-long lull. This included a rally to mark the 1932 revolution in June and to support a censure debate in the parliament in mid-July. But only between a few to several dozen people have attended these compared with several hundred to a few thousand activists that regularly protested in the city last summer.
Declining popular support seems to be one of the main factors behind the dwindling protest movement, in our analysis. We have spoken with local contacts who are well-connected in activist circles. They described a rising perception among the wider local population that the governance-focused demands by activists are not ‘kitchen table issues’ for people in Thailand. And based on an opinion survey by a local university from June, more than 84% people agreed with a decision by the authorities to designate special protest sites in Bangkok to manage any future demonstrations.
State crackdown deters would-be activists
Suppression by the authorities of this kind will also probably make it harder for the activists to mobilise large protests this year. Since 2020, the government has taken several steps to stifle political dissent. This includes frequent enforcement of lese majeste laws, detention of activists, tightening regulation on press reporting and censorship on social media and digital surveillance (including spyware use). Based on conversations with our contacts and local press reporting, these seem to have made it harder for people to organise and are also likely to continue to deter some of them from protesting.
Outlook for opposition protests
That said, the general election next year and persistent grievances around democratic governance will probably drive turnout at protests in the coming months to several hundred people at least. This is likely to be driven by so-called ‘Thalu Gas’ groups that have become increasingly active in recent months and that tend to protest mainly around Din Daeng intersection. However, one of our sources who works as a security professional told us that public attitudes towards these groups are largely ‘dismissive’ and that for now they ‘do not see them mobilising the same numbers of people as in 2020’.
