US | Anti-ICE protests very likely countrywide

• Similar, albeit less violent, protests are very likely in cities with large migrant populations, where local law enforcement has not signed agreements with federal agencies to enforce the removal of illegal immigrants
• The situation in LA will probably fuel anti-government sentiment and lead to high turnout at previously planned nationwide protests against a military parade in Washington DC on 14 June

Tensions remain heightened in Los Angeles. Activists appear highly intent on continuing to protest against immigration raids by federal agents. This is despite the mobilisation of 700 marines by the national government, which Governor Gavin Newsom has strongly rejected. And yesterday, 10 June, Mayor Karen Bass imposed a nighttime curfew from 2000hrs until 0600hrs today, within an area of downtown LA, in an effort to stop looting that has broken out alongside the demonstrations. Nevertheless, the protests seemingly remain confined to a few blocks downtown.

Protests against immigration raids are almost certain across the US in the coming days. We anticipate that these will mostly be peaceful, but sporadic clashes with police are probable. We have already seen such cases in local media reports. And also calls from activists for more protests. Having said that, we do not anticipate the same level of unrest as has occurred in LA to unfold in other cities. This is because there appear to be few other state governments that oppose President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and have consistently sought to protect immigrant rights, including those of illegal migrants.

Protests likely to continue in LA

Protests in central LA will almost certainly continue for at least the next few days. Activists appear to still be highly motivated to take to the streets in opposition to government immigration policy. This is given the expansion of immigration raids on 10 June by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency into other parts of California. And hardline protesters appear not to be deterred by the arrival of the marines in the city, nor the imposition of a curfew overnight yesterday. To date, there have been 300 arrests, including 25 for violating the curfew.

However, we doubt that protests will spread beyond the few locations in LA where they are already occurring. This includes around the Civic Center that houses courts, federal buildings, the local police headquarters, and the nearby ICE detention centre. Sporadic demonstrations are also likely in areas heavily populated with immigrants, such as Paramount and Westlake. We have also seen reports of protests around hotels where federal agents are staying, such as in Pasadena.

Further federal forces to be deployed

According to the local press, 700 marines will begin ‘conducting operations by Wednesday [11 June]’. However, it is not clear what this entails. The same article on NBC said that the National Guard and the US Marines normally cannot make arrests unless the president declares an insurrection is underway. We have seen no specific references by President Trump that he intends to make such a declaration. However, yesterday, 10 June, he labelled protestors ‘paid insurrectionists’.

Anti-immigration protests in other states

Protests against immigration raids are almost certain to continue in locations across the country. Local media yesterday reported that since Monday, 9 June, such demonstrations have taken place in several cities, including New York, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Oregon, Portland, Las Vegas, Austin, Seattle, and Washington DC, among others. And we have seen calls for further such action in these and other cities. Based on these protests, turnout is likely to vary widely, from a few hundred to a few thousand people.

Regardless of size, we assess it is improbable that the situation in these other locations will escalate to the same degree as in LA. The federal government appears to be trying to make an example of California, which is one of the few states where local law enforcement has not signed any agreements with ICE to implement the administration’s deportation policies. In addition, LA is also the city in the country with the second highest number of immigrants, many of them illegal.

In contrast, in other states with high numbers of migrants, the state authorities have backed the White House’s stance on immigration. This includes Texas, where protests have been planned in Austin in the coming days. Governor Gret Abbot yesterday announced he would deploy the National Guard to preempt any protests from escalating. And the Mayor of New York  City, which has the highest share of immigrant population of any city in the country, has warned that they will not tolerate violence from demonstrators.

In our assessment, protests are most likely in locations with large immigrant populations and where local law enforcement has not engaged in agreements with federal agencies to facilitate the removal of illegal immigrants. This includes primarily so-called ‘sanctuary jurisdictions’.  The Center for Immigration Studies, which describes itself as a non-partisan research organisation, lists several states, counties and cities as such here. While we anticipate most protests will remain largely peaceful, scuffles with police or sporadic acts of opportunistic violence, such as vandalism and looting, are likely.

Protests around military parade on 14 June likely to be charged

The ongoing situation in LA will probably fuel anti-government sentiment and lead to high turnout at planned nationwide protests on 14 June. These are against the holding of a military parade on the same day in Washington DC to mark the US Army’s 250th anniversary. Tens of thousands of people have participated in similar anti-Trump demonstrations in major cities across the country in recent months, blocking roads and disrupting traffic. Based on the so-called ‘No Kings’ website, participants plan to gather at multiple locations. The organisers have published a full map displaying planned demonstrations here.