Right-wing extremists are likely to try to carry out acts of violence around the November general elections, and potentially inauguration day in 2025
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 08 October 2024.
Major and prolonged social or political upheaval is unlikely around the upcoming presidential election scheduled for 5 November. National polling data suggest that the race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be very close. This was also the case in the 2020 presidential election. In recent months, polling shows Harris has gained ground on Trump in several key swing states that have previously decided the outcome of elections.
Over the course of this year, we have received client inquiries about the potential for civil unrest and extremist violence around the election. And in our view, the political atmosphere in the US over the next couple of months (through inauguration day on 20 January 2025) will be particularly charged and volatile, regardless of the election results. We are issuing this summary report of our top-line assessments around domestic stability to reassure clients that we continue to closely monitor the situation.
At a glance:
- A Kamala Harris victory in the presidential election would be likely to raise the high threat of right-wing extremist violence after the election. For further analysis of this scenario, see B-USA-02-10-24.
- If Donald Trump legally challenges a Harris victory, near-weekly protests in support of these efforts are likely to occur. For our full protest outlook of a Harris election win, see B-USA-12-09-24.
- An election win for Trump would probably prompt isolated left-wing extremist violence and large protests in major cities in the days after. For our analysis of this scenario, see B-USA-11-07-24.
- Right-wing extremists are likely to try to carry out acts of violence around the November general elections. For our comprehensive terrorism threat assessment of the election, see B-USA-03-04-24.
- A political crisis around the upcoming election is unlikely. In B-USA-14-03-24, we provide our assessments on the potential for a crisis around the general election.
The campaign has already had several pivotal moments. These include President Joe Biden exiting the presidential race, two failed assassination attempts against Trump (in July and September), and Harris becoming the Democratic candidate and taking the lead over Trump in national polls. The failed attempts on Trump’s life raised questions about what would happen if he or Harris were to be killed or incapacitated around the election. For our assessments around this scenario, see B-USA-17-09-24.
These developments have not led to widespread, sustained turmoil around the campaign. But hostile foreign states are highly likely to use such moments to conduct disinformation campaigns leading up to the election. In B-USA-16-08-24 we address hostile foreign state action around the election and the possible consequences of disinformation. There is little doubt that the election will be very polarising, but on current indications we still forecast that it is likely to pass off largely peacefully.
Image: People attend a watch party for the US Presidential debate between Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in New York on 10 September 2024. Photo by Leonardo Munoz/AFP via Getty Images.
