The Trump administration is likely to enhance surveillance measures in the US to counter Chinese economic espionage over the next few years
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 17 February 2025.
- During Trump’s first term, scientists mostly of Chinese descent were surveilled and indicted for alleged espionage under the ‘China Initiative’ – a Department of Justice programme to combat intellectual property theft
- Some researchers working in fields like biotechnology, defence and semiconductors will probably experience intensified surveillance and scrutiny if the initiative is reinstated
President Trump is likely to revive the ‘China Initiative’ during his second term. This is a Department of Justice programme from his first presidency aimed at curbing Chinese espionage and intellectual property theft. It was ended by the Biden administration in 2022. But similar measures are likely to be reintroduced in the coming months due to Trump’s focus on countering China’s economic influence.
The current chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security said in December he expects a revival of the China Initiative. And he proposed a bill on 7 February to further sanction the transfer of ‘certain national interest technology to China’. Based on actions during the first Trump presidency, we anticipate these will probably target Chinese and Asian American researchers in high-tech fields like biotechnology and defense.
Reintroducing the China Initiative would probably involve intensifying the surveillance of some Chinese nationals and Asian Americans. During Trump’s first term, it targeted scientists mostly of Chinese descent for alleged espionage and ‘research integrity’ issues. Reviving the initiative was a key recommendation of Project 2025, a policy agenda put forward by influential conservatives in anticipation of another Trump presidency. Given that the Trump administration appears to be following Project 2025 as a blueprint to govern, the programme is likely to be reinstated to protect US economic interests.
China remains highly intent on commercial espionage
High-tech US firms are a key target for Chinese commercial espionage. A study by Penn State University estimates that this costs the US $320 billion annually. In the past two decades, such operations have particularly targeted the aerospace, biotechnology, defence and electronics manufacturing sectors. We anticipate this will almost certainly remain the case in the coming years, as China’s efforts to gain a competitive edge continue to drive its espionage activities.
Asian American researchers likely to face heightened scrutiny
American researchers with Asian, particularly Chinese, ancestry are likely to face intensified surveillance. During Trump’s first term, the ‘China Initiative’ targeted individuals in high-tech fields like biomedicine, defence and semiconductors, particularly those of Chinese descent. A 2021 MIT investigation identified at least 150 such cases. We expect Trump to revive this initiative in his second term, focusing on countering Chinese espionage and protecting US scientific advantages in these key sectors. This is based on comments made by senior administration officials in recent months and the recommendations of Project 2025 to ‘restart the China Initiative’.
A revival of this initiative would probably lead to the harassment of some researchers. During Trump’s first term, some scientists reported being followed by surveillance teams for nearly two years. Despite the initial focus on preventing the theft of trade secrets, most cases brought under the China Initiative were for ‘research integrity’, which seems to be a broad term referring to irregularities in grant applications. Only one such case made it to trial according to the MIT database and it ended in acquittal. The number of people surveilled is likely to have been significantly higher.
Fines and data exposure likely to be main risks to firms
Fines and data exposure would probably be the main risks for businesses arising from a revival of the China Initiative. Several companies paid multi-million dollar fines to the US government between 2019 and 2021 to settle charges of their employees being accused of conspiring to conduct economic espionage. In one notable case, a Taiwanese semiconductor firm paid $60m when two of their engineers took a plea deal in 2020. The FBI has also previously seized electronic devices belonging to some suspects under surveillance. It is unclear based on publicly-available reporting what data was compromised.
A revival of the China Initiative would probably deter some US-based scientists of Chinese ancestry from pursuing high-tech research. A 2021 survey of 658 such scientists (both US citizens and foreign nationals) found that 51% feared surveillance, leading many to avoid ‘cutting edge’ topics and restrict their work to publicly-available data. Aerospace, biotechnology and semiconductor manufacturing would probably be the most impacted fields. This is because they involve advanced technologies that are closely scrutinised and highly sensitive to potential espionage concerns.
Electronic device searches unlikely for most Chinese travellers
Most Chinese nationals, including business travellers, are unlikely to face searches or seizures of electronic devices at the US border. Border agents carried out 1,147 searches of Chinese nationals’ devices in 2019, according to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data obtained by the usually-reliable South China Morning Post. But this affected 0.04% of the approximately 2.8m visitors to the US from China that year. We doubt that CBP will have the capacity to search a much larger portion of those visitors in the coming years as Trump also seeks to make major cuts to the size of the federal workforce.
Image: US President Donald Trump attends a campaign event on food security in a barn on the Smith Family Farm on 23 September 2024 in Smithton, Pennsylvania. Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.
