US | Drone activity around critical infrastructure

• This spate of sightings will very likely lead to the introduction of new federal legislation on countering unmanned aircraft system threats

Federal officials have moved to curb drone activity over critical infrastructure sites in New Jersey and New York. The FAA has banned drones from flying over areas of both states. This appears to be in response to near-daily sightings of drones in New Jersey, New York and other northeast states since early November. If the comparatively low number of drone sightings near sensitive sites in other states rises significantly over the coming weeks, the authorities would probably enact similar measures there.

It is unclear who is operating these drones, or what they are doing. Federal officials have said that the drones do not pose a security threat but have not provided any further information about their origins or activity, despite significant press attention and political pressure. The drones have caused minimal disruption to civil aviation so far, and on current indications we forecast that this will remain the case. But the lack of clarity from officials about them makes isolated, vigilante-style interceptions of suspected drones plausible.

Flight restrictions enacted in New Jersey and New York

The vast majority of restrictions cover specific areas of a one-nautical-mile radius up to and including 400ft. The FAA issued flight restrictions on the use of drones for 23 areas of New Jersey on 18 December, which will expire on 17 January 2025. Similar restrictions in New York came into effect on 19 December covering sections of Brooklyn, Bronx, Long Island, Manhattan, Queens, Staten Island and Yonkers (see map). These last until 18 January 2025. There appears to be some exceptions for military activities and emergency response services. A full list of the affected areas can be found here.

The federal authorities have not provided a specific reason for implementing these measures. The FAA notices cite ‘special security reasons’, without elaborating. New York governor Kathy Hocul said yesterday, 19 December, that the restrictions in her state are ‘purely precautionary’. In any case, the locations of the restrictions, coupled with the areas that they extend to strongly suggest they are to cover critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure and military sites.

We suspect that the FAA has imposed the measures on New Jersey and New York first because most publicly-reported sightings have been in these places. And there is a high concentration of critical infrastructure in them too. In the past month, there have been similar drone sightings in California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. But the FAA has not issued any notices for these states.

Very limited impact on civil aviation and commercial operations 

These incidents have caused very little disruption to civil aviation or commercial operations. The operator at New York Stewart International Airport shut down runways for an hour on 13 December after the FAA reported drone sightings in the area. The same night, the airspace above Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio temporarily closed for the same reason. The provisions of the FAA’s restrictions suggest commercial operations using drones are unlikely to be significantly affected; operators can seek government exceptions.

We have little reason to question the authorities’ assertion that the drones do not pose a threat. Even if they did, it seems unlikely that they would seek to intercept any drones while over critical sites. When the US Air Force shot down what they described as a Chinese ‘spy balloon’ in February 2023 they waited until it was over waters off the coast of South Carolina to do this.

There are also signs that the authorities are able to identify the owners of drones whose activities have posed safety risks. On 14 December, police officers arrested two individuals in Boston who had operated a drone ‘dangerously close’ to Logan International Airport, based on a Boston police department press release. Officers did not seek to intercept the drone, but tracked its owners and arrested them the same day. However, it is unclear whether the recent incident in Boston is connected to the sightings reported elsewhere in the region.

Lack of explanation likely to feed conspiracy theories

The absence of a definitive explanation by the government is likely to further erode public confidence in federal institutions. In recent weeks, federal officials have consistently said they are investigating the incidents but have not provided yet a clear explanation of what is happening. And during a news conference on 16 December, President-elect Donald Trump said that ‘the government knows what is happening’. Following one of the most polarising elections in the country’s history, such episodes will probably strengthen anti-government views and conspiracy theories.

Given this, it is plausible that some individuals will seek to intercept drones themselves. We have not seen any reports of people attempting to shoot down drones in recent weeks. But some prominent officials have advocated it. Users on the right-wing online extremist channels that we monitor have also echoed these calls. If such shootings occur, they would almost certainly be isolated and consist of an individual using a firearm to try to down a drone over their property or public spaces. This would clearly carry a risk of bystanders being hit by stray bullets – or any debris from damaged drones.

New legislation on UAS threats highly likely in 2025

This spate of sightings will very likely lead to the introduction of new federal legislation on countering unmanned aircraft system threats. Currently, some federal agencies and the military, within particular limits, have the authority to respond to drone threats over US soil. But the recent sightings have led to renewed calls on Congress to pass legislation empowering local and state agencies. If any such legislation is introduced, it would be likely to pass, given that there seems to be broad bipartisan support for such measures.