US | Protest outlook for Democratic National Convention

Several tens of thousands of people are very likely to attend protests in Chicago during the Democratic National Convention (DNC) between 19 and 22 August.

• We assess that the potential for civil unrest is low, given the significant law enforcement presence and plan for the convention
• If incidents of violence occur during protests, the authorities will very likely respond quickly to contain these, based on the available security plans

Large protests of tens of thousands of people in Chicago during the DNC between 19 and 22 August are very likely. Clients have recently asked us about the potential for unrest and violence around the DNC, particularly after the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump on 13 July and President Joe Biden’s decision to not seek reelection on 21 July. There have been no official warnings of active threats to the DNC. Movement restrictions near the event sites will prompt hours-long commuter delays, making it difficult for workers and customers to reach businesses.

Large protests highly likely

Left-wing activists appear determined to hold large protests during the DNC, near the two main sites at the United Center and McCormick Place Convention Center. President Joe Biden’s decision to not seek reelection has not altered left-wing activist groups’ plans to protest during the convention. These groups have said on their social media over the past week that their plans will go ahead regardless of who is leading the Democratic ticket, citing the Democratic Party’s position on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

There also seems to be growing opposition among some left-wing activists to how the Democratic National Committee has carried out the party’s nomination process. In a press release issued on 23 July, Black Lives Matter demanded an ‘informal, virtual snap primary’ countrywide prior to the DNC, alleging that the Democratic Party is acting in an undemocratic manner and ignoring ‘the will of the voters’. Even if these demands are ignored, as appears likely, we do not anticipate major unrest at the DNC.

Marches organised by the ‘March on the DNC’ coalition will probably be the largest events, involving several tens of thousands of people. Local press reports suggest that the coalition consists of at least 125 organisations including pro-Palestine, racial justice, socialist, immigrants rights, women’s rights, and workers rights groups. The coalition of activists plan to march on 19 August at 1200hrs and 22 August at 1700hrs, with both events starting at Union Park, 1501 W. Randolph Street. The specific march routes remain unclear; activists have called a proposed route by city officials ‘inadequate’. See the attached map for this route.

Potential for violent protests and sustained unrest low

The potential for violent protests during the convention is low, in our assessment. We have not seen calls for participants to engage in acts of violence, and messaging around the plans has been moderate in tone, in our analysis. Based on similar marches organised by left-wing activists in the US in recent years, we anticipate that most people will protest peacefully, though isolated acts of civil disobedience (such as blocking roads) are probable. On 25 July, Chicago officials said that there have not been major security incidents during protests in the city over the past year.

Still, it is likely that isolated incidents of violence occur during protest events around the DNC. This is due to the intense social and political polarisation around the election campaign this year, particularly around the Democratic Party’s position regarding the conflict in Gaza. For instance, on 24 July, police in Washington DC used stun grenades and pepper spray during a confrontation with pro-Palestine activists who attempted to march beyond a police barrier near the US Capitol.

Physical clashes between protesters and counter-protesters around these events are also plausible. We have not seen specific plans for counter-protests. But over the past year, we have seen examples of counter-protesters attending events around emotive issues such as abortion and Israel-Palestine. In our analysis, any scuffles are unlikely to go beyond small-scale fighting between protesters. And based on the available security plans, these would most likely take place on the outskirts of the security perimeters.

If protests become violent, we anticipate that the authorities will quickly respond and arrest participants, based on how police departments have responded to similar events in major cities this year. The local authorities appear to be well prepared and resourced to respond to any outbreaks of unrest quickly. All Chicago police officers will be on duty during the convention. And an additional 500 officers from law enforcement agencies around Illinois and from Milwaukee, where the Republican National Convention was held earlier in July, will also be in the city to support the local authorities.

Impact on businesses

Road closures and security measures will probably disrupt workers’ and customers’ ability to access businesses within the convention’s security perimeter. This would mainly consist of hours-long commutes to offices and businesses within these areas, in our assessment. The security plan will consist of an outer perimeter where pedestrians can move freely and vehicles must be secured before entering. And there will also be an inner perimeter accessible only to people who live within the area, are attending or working the convention, or are visiting businesses within the perimeter.

Based on the locations of the United Center and McCormick Convention Center, we anticipate that traffic congestion will probably be particularly severe along the following roads:

• US Route 41
• Interstate 55
• Interstate 90
• Interstate 290

Protests planned around the convention will probably cause prolonged disruption to businesses in the immediate area. Based on large demonstrations that have occurred in major cities this year, this would probably consist of hours-long traffic delays caused by planned road closures. We have not seen calls by activist groups to mount direct actions against specific businesses or sectors. In our view, spontaneous protests in other parts of the city would also probably lead to hours-long traffic delays, depending on how quickly the authorities can respond to these.

Citing the potential for large demonstrations, some companies have decided to change their normal business operations. For instance, Deere has advised its employees to work from home during the convention, Accenture is closing its offices, and Oil-Dri Corp is closing its Chicago headquarters and advising its employees to work remotely, based on a 17 July Bloomberg report. We have not seen further public reports of companies in Chicago closing due to the DNC.

Chicago officials confident of security plans

The potential for major security incidents at the convention appears low. Officials have not issued any public warnings of specific threats to the event. And no major security incidents occurred at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee from 15-18 July, based on press reports. Similar to security efforts around the RNC, DNC organisers and the authorities in Chicago plan to enact a large security perimeter around the United Center and McCormick Place.

State and federal officials appear to be confident in the security plan for the DNC. During a press conference unveiling the plan on 25 July, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson said ‘Chicago is ready’. And a senior Secret Service official, who is charged with overseeing security in the immediate areas of the convention sites, has said the plan ‘allows us to adjust for any possible scenario.’ In our view, the apparent security lapse that led to the failed assassination attempt on Trump will almost certainly place immense pressure on state and federal officials to prevent any major security incidents during the DNC.