US | Scenario assessment of presidential candidate being killed

• We assess with high confidence that the election and transfer of power would proceed as scheduled in either case
• In the days after the incapacitation of either candidate, we would anticipate large demonstrations and some acts of violence against state institutions

Another plot to kill Donald Trump has raised concerns about the security of the presidential candidates ahead of the 5 November election. A man officials suspect of planning to murder Trump on 15 September appears to have acted alone. But it was the second time in as many months someone has tried to kill Trump. We still assess that the highly-polarised political atmosphere, online misinformation about the plots and the election, and the availability of weapons in the US means that isolated attacks against political candidates ahead of election day remain a strong possibility.

The latest incident begs the question as to what would happen if Trump or Kamala Harris were killed before the election, or inauguration day (20 January 2025). Based on our understanding of the US constitution and political party rules, the electoral process or the political transition being postponed or cancelled would be extremely unlikely. This is even if one of the candidates died shortly before or after election day, or was incapacitated due to injury.

Nevertheless, either candidate being killed ahead of election day would probably lead to an outpouring of public grief and anger in the form of large demonstrations over several days. There are multiple conspiracy theories circulating about the US Secret Service, both the Democratic and Republican parties, President Biden, Vice President Harris and the media being complicit in the recent assassination attempts against Trump. Given this, it is highly plausible that activists or extremists would seek to mount attacks against these in retaliation for either candidate being assassinated.

Assailant appears to have acted alone

There is nothing to suggest the suspect in the latest plot was part of a group or wider conspiracy to kill Trump. Officials say they are not looking for anyone else. The authorities have not publicly commented on his motivations for targeting Trump. But according to multiple press reports, the assailant was extremely passionate about Ukraine’s effort to resist Russia’s invasion of the country. It is therefore plausible he was driven by accusations by Trump’s critics that he would side with Moscow in the conflict.

Any change to electoral timetable extremely unlikely

No US presidential candidate has died during a campaign after receiving their party’s nomination. Even so, the second attempt on Trump’s life this year suggests it would be prudent for security teams to prepare for the aftermath of either Trump or Harris being killed or incapacitated before election day on 5 November or inauguration day on 20 January 2025.

It is extremely unlikely that the presidential election would be delayed or postponed. This is even if a new candidate(s) needed to be selected. According to the Congressional Research Service, there is no mechanism in the US constitution to cancel a presidential election outright.

Although Congress has the power to postpone a presidential election, doing this would require both the House of Representatives and Senate passing an ‘act of congress’ that includes a new date for the election. Given that both houses have struggled to find consensus on most domestic issues in recent years and that doing this would be highly contentious, Congress would very probably struggle to agree on a new electoral timetable.

In any case, both of the major political parties have procedures in place to deal with this scenario. According to The Brookings Institute, a reputable non-profit organisation, each party has its own rules on how a presidential candidate would be replaced if they die or are incapacitated; this essentially involves each party reconvening delegates, who would select new candidates for the election.

The death of either Harris or Trump during the transition period would also be highly unlikely to disrupt the inauguration process. According to the US constitution, if a candidate dies or is incapacitated after election day and before the inauguration on 20 January, the vice-presidential candidate would assume the presidency. Still, the unprecedented nature of such a development, coupled with very acute political polarisation means that there would be a high degree of public distrust over the outcome.

Candidate’s death would prompt protests and some violence

Either candidate being killed ahead of inauguration day would undoubtedly lead to a sense of national crisis among the public and officials. Given the reaction to the two attempted assassinations against Trump so far, many voters and activists would be likely to express anger at a range of individuals and organisations for having allowed such an incident to happen. That public response would probably take the form of protests and some violent extremist attacks.

We would anticipate large demonstrations in major cities countrywide during the days immediately after either candidate’s death. Based on most political protests in the US over the past few years, the vast majority of these would probably be peaceful, taking place close to city centres. Nevertheless, at least some opportunistic acts of vandalism against buildings linked to the government and law enforcement would be probable.

Both left- and right-wing extremists would probably mount attacks. We have not seen any calls for revenge or other acts of violence around the election in the extremist online channels we monitor, including in reaction to the attempts to kill Trump. The exceptional circumstance of a candidate dying – and the resulting disinformation over who was responsible – would be likely to lead to a common sense of motivation among like-minded extremists to target sites linked to anyone perceived to be responsible if either candidate died.

Based on the conspiracy theories circulating around the recent assassination attempts, we anticipate targets would probably include the following:

• US federal institutions. That is particularly the secret service and the FBI (the latter has been involved with ongoing criminal investigations into Trump)
• President Biden and the Democratic party. Users on right-wing channels have already speculated that Democrats (specifically Harris) or the ‘deep state’ orchestrated or facilitated the latest assassination attempt. Trump has also accused President Biden and Harris of inciting the recent plots against him
• The Trump campaign and Republican party. Users on left-wing extremist online forums have claimed that both attempted murders were an ‘inside job’ – that the incidents were staged by the Trump campaign to further his election bid
• The media. Users on right-wing channels and some Republican officials have claimed that the ‘mainstream’ media is to blame (or at a minimum is complicit) for the two assassination attempts targeting Trump
• Antifa activists. Users on right-wing channels speculated that the shooter involved in the first assassination attempt targeting Trump was supportive of Antifa (a left-wing activist group) or that the group played a role in the incident

None of the extremist responses to the plots against Trump have focused on commercial interests or NGOs, as far as we have seen. We strongly doubt that these would be specifically targeted in the aftermath of a candidate being killed.

On current indications, there is little to suggest that violent extremists would be able to organise to mount a coordinated and sustained campaign of large attacks. Efforts by the authorities since the 2021 storming of the US Capitol appear to have dissuaded groups from coordinating or discussing potential attacks online. As is currently the case, any acts of political violence or terrorism would probably involve a lone actor carrying out a shooting.