Yemen | Reports of a potential ground offensive

There is a reasonable chance that a US-backed offensive by forces aligned with the Yemeni government will start in the coming weeks

• There have been several indications that preparations for such an offensive are underway
• Still, we continue to assess that cross-border attacks by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely, as the group still gains from negotiating with Saudi Arabia

Usually-reliable international media reports this week indicate that forces aligned with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government are preparing for a military offensive against the Houthis. We assess that there is a reasonable chance that such an offensive will start in the coming weeks, especially since US military officials have reportedly met with Yemeni government officials this week. Such publicised meetings are rare. The US has been attempting to degrade the Houthis since it launched an extensive military campaign against them on 15 March. The same press reports suggest that the US will provide air support for any ground offensive.

A resumption of intense fighting between the Houthis and forces aligned with the Yemeni government is likely to heighten military and diplomatic tensions between the former and Gulf states. Over the past few days, the Houthis have warned Saudi Arabia and the UAE against supporting any military action against them. However, we doubt that the Houthis will resume cross-border attacks on the Gulf as a result. The group remains engaged in peace talks with Saudi Arabia, and such attacks probably prompt a strong military response from Saudi Arabia.

US coordination on a ground offensive appears to be underway

There are indications that the US is working with the Yemeni government as part of its efforts to degrade the Houthis. The head of the US military in the region met with officials from the Yemeni Armed Forces in Saudi Arabia from 3-5 April to discuss ‘ongoing efforts against the […] Houthis’. And the US Ambassador to Yemen met with the vice president of the Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council. Usually-reliable regional media also reported on 8 April that Yemeni government officials called for international support for a ground offensive, arguing that it is necessary to end the Houthi threat to shipping.

Any new large-scale ground offensive would probably be slow and take several months. Since 2014, the Houthis have displayed their capabilities as an effective fighting force and appear well-established in the areas they control. According to the reports in international media outlets, the Yemeni forces would launch the offensive from the south and the east. As of yet, we have not seen any indications of a large military buildup in these areas; however, several Yemeni security experts in recent days have publicly said that preparations and arming for an offensive are underway.

Houthis step up threats against Saudi Arabia and UAE

We have little doubt that the Houthis will hold Riyadh – and to a lesser extent Abu Dhabi – responsible should a ground offensive begin to succeed. This is especially if the US supports the offensive with a sustained aerial military campaign. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been active members of the civil war between the internationally-recognised government and the Houthis over the past decade. And although the UAE has significantly reduced its political and military support for one of the armed factions aligned with the government (the STC), Saudi Arabia continues to strongly back the Aden-based and internationally-recognised government.

The Houthis have already warned Riyadh and Abu Dhabi against any involvement in US military operations against them. Since reports of a ground offensive emerged, a Houthi senior official has threatened attacks against Saudi Arabia and the UAE if they were to get involved in ‘the American aggression against Yemen’. And on 9 April, a Houthi-affiliated account on X warned Saudi Arabia not to ‘get involved’ in ‘an aggression against Yemen’, otherwise its ‘oil would not remain’ and it would ‘turn the skies over Saudi Arabia into clouds of fire’.

Cross-border attacks by Houthis still unlikely

We assess that cross-border attacks by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia (or the UAE) are unlikely in the coming weeks. This is mainly because the Houthis are still in peace talks with the Saudi government. The Houthis appear determined to achieve a share of Yemen’s oil revenues, which are controlled by Riyadh. And Saudi Arabia has been averse to resuming military operations in Yemen after agreeing to a truce with the group in 2022. Any attack by the group would likely provoke Saudi Arabia to end the truce and start large-scale military action. The group is only likely to resume attacks should it feel existentially threatened, in our view.

Indicators for a Houthi strike against Saudi Arabia or UAE

There are several indicators we will be monitoring to determine if a Houthi strike against Saudi Arabia or the UAE is becoming more likely or is potentially imminent. These are as follows, in no particular order:

• Saudi Arabia conducts a major air strike in Houthi-controlled areas
• Saudi Arabia mounts daily strikes along the shared border
• Saudi Arabia or the Houthis announce the collapse of peace talks
• Saudi Arabia publicly supports a ground offensive against the Houthis
• The Houthis start to lose significant ground in Yemen
• Yemeni government forces encircle Houthi-held Hodeidah
• The Houthis say Saudi Arabia is allowing the US to use its airspace and military bases to launch attacks against it
• STC launches large-scale attack against Houthis

Any Houthi attack would involve an armed drone, rocket or missile targeting energy infrastructure, airports, or ports near the border with Saudi Arabia. But the group has the capability to target Saudi and Emirati critical infrastructure with armed drones and ballistic missiles. These include airports, ports and oil facilities. This would be in line with previous attacks by the group.