After a major earthquake in late March, the junta has stepped up air strikes in the area while reconstruction efforts have reportedly stalled
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 30 May 2025.
- Road travel in the Mandalay region is very likely to remain challenging over the coming months
- Already-limited access to healthcare and clean water will probably worsen
Severe travel and operational disruption in the Mandalay region is highly likely to persist over the coming months. Access to drinking water, basic goods, and healthcare remains severely limited more than two months after a major earthquake there. Since then, armed fighting between the ruling junta and local armed groups has also intensified around Mandalay, with little signs that it will abate anytime soon. This includes frequent air strikes by the military, including in Madaya township (around 40km north of Mandalay city).
Reconstruction efforts have reportedly made little progress, including in Mandalay and neighbouring Naypyidaw. Airports in both cities have reopened, but operations remain limited. The authorities are also continuing to divert aid from earthquake-affected regions to support the military, according to local press reports. Access to healthcare is particularly restricted; facilities in remote areas are lacking equipment as well as personnel. And people travelling to Mandalay city also remain at a risk of detention at army checkpoints, in our assessment.
Military air strikes in disaster zones occurring frequently
We assess there will continue to be a high risk of travellers and business personnel in the Mandalay region being caught up in air strikes in the coming months. This is because the junta seems to be trying to capitalise on the recent earthquake in its offensive against armed groups there. The military has been fighting armed groups on multiple fronts in the country. But fighting in the Mandalay region has intensified significantly since August 2024 when armed groups began advancing towards Mandalay, the second largest city in Myanmar after Yangon.
The military appears to be trying to recapture territories it lost to local armed groups last year. In January, the junta launched renewed offensives in Madaya and Thabeikkyin townships. After the earthquake in March, it has all but ignored a humanitarian ceasefire it announced immediately after, despite recently extending it until 31 May. Local press reports suggest the military has stepped its aerial bombardments in the northern parts of the Mandalay region since April, with near-daily air strikes in Madaya, Singu, and Thabeikkyin townships.
It is probable that armed fighting in the Mandalay region will intensify in the coming months. A report published by an international humanitarian agency last week cited sources close to armed groups as saying that they suspect that current air strikes are aimed at degrading the groups’ defensive posts before the military launches major ground operations in the ‘coming monsoon season’; this usually takes place from June to October. We suspect the junta wants to tighten its control of the region ahead of a general election currently due in December.
Disruption to road travel likely to persist
Beyond the ongoing armed conflict, road travel in earthquake-affected regions is also very likely to remain challenging this year. In Mandalay city, major roads have been cleared of debris, based on reports by a state-owned media outlet. But in remote locations outside the city, damage to infrastructure caused by air strikes and armed fighting is obstructing travel and causing delays, including around Madaya township. This is according to the same report by the humanitarian agency.
In addition, there continues to be a high risk of road users being detained by the military when crossing through security checkpoints. The junta has been detaining locals for forceful conscription since last year. And there have also been reports of the military detaining people and demanding money from victims or their families for their release in recent years. This includes Mandalay, where the military arrested more than 200 people in January, according to local press reports. These accounts suggest that detainees are either let go once the military receives money or are forcibly sent to military training camps.
Stalling reconstruction likely to worsen humanitarian crisis
The authorities have made little progress in rebuilding infrastructure and repairing the damage caused by the earthquake, including in Mandalay. According to local press reports from mid-May, inspections of damaged buildings are still ongoing in the city. And some reconstruction efforts have been interrupted because the price of cement has risen amid supply shortages. In addition, the military is reportedly restricting delivery of aid, including fuel to damaged areas. This is further hampering repairs.
Amid this, earthquake-related disruption will probably further compound the already-poor humanitarian situation in the region. The ongoing civil conflict since 2021 has exacerbated water shortages that occur every summer. And in early May, international media reported that access to fresh water from local streams and wells has been disrupted in hundreds of locations across the Mandalay region. There have also been reports of water contamination and disease outbreaks in the past month, with the UN warning of a potential cholera outbreak.
Image: Rescue teams work to evacuate residents trapped under the rubble of the collapsed building ‘Sky Villa Condominium development’ in Mandalay on 30 March 2025; Photo by Sai Aung Main/AFP via Getty Images.
