India / Pakistan | Cross-border strikes now imminent

An Indian military strike against Pakistan now appears imminent by next week 

• Pakistan’s defence minister on 28 April said that the country has strengthened its defensive posture as they expect an attack from India
• Any Indian attack or air strike is likely to target militant camps in Pakistan, prompting proportional retaliation by Pakistan in Indian territory

There are signs that an Indian military strike in Pakistan is imminent, probably by next week. Pakistan’s defence minister said on 28 April that the country is expecting a strike in the coming days. And the authorities have put the Pakistan Air Force on operational alert in the central and northern parts of the country. India has blamed Pakistan for a recent militant attack in its Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) region that killed at least 26 tourists. Both sides have been exchanging gunfire along their border in J&K since then.

We anticipate any Indian military action to target militant camps in several areas of Pakistan. But we doubt they would attack the Pakistani military or civilians, as this would almost certainly bring both countries closer to war. Pakistan will probably respond in kind, and retaliate by striking sparsely populated, if not empty, areas in northern India, with the aim of avoiding civilian and military casualties. Temporary airspace closures are probable in parts of northeastern Pakistan and northern India in the event of such strikes, leading to days-long air travel delays and cancellations.

Impending military action in Pakistan

An Indian military strike in Pakistan appears imminent. Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, told Reuters on 28 April that Pakistan has ‘reinforced forces’ because an Indian military incursion ‘is imminent now’. On the same day, Asif told another Pakistani news channel that ‘we can have war in the next day or two or three or four’. His statement is a credible indicator of an impending Indian strike in Pakistan, in our assessment. This is consistent with Pakistan’s past messaging ahead of military action by India in 2019, probably in an attempt to avoid military escalation.

We have seen other signs that Pakistan is preparing for an imminent Indian attack. It put all its air bases on operational alert in recent days and closed certain air routes between Islamabad and Lahore until 0500 UTC on 30 April, citing operational reasons. Most of the Pakistan Air Force’s manned aircraft seem to be conducting non-routine exercises near the air routes which have been closed, based on our monitoring of Pakistani social media. Other air routes remain open, though Indian carriers are no longer allowed to overfly Pakistan, according to the Pakistani authorities.

The Indian government’s recent efforts to restrict reporting on national security issues also indicate an impending military strike. India’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting on 26 April asked all media channels and social media users to refrain from showing live coverage of defence operations and troop movements, and from prematurely releasing sensitive information. It cited the alleged adverse effects of such reporting during previous conflict situations and counter-militancy operations.

India likely to strike militant camps

Any Indian attack will probably target camps of militant groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). These are located in several parts of Pakistan, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces, and its Azad Kashmir region, based on reporting by Indian and international media. Some are located near major cities. The headquarters of the LeT in Muridke, over an hour away from Lahore in Punjab province, is likely to be a key target for India. This is mainly because The Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the recent attack in J&K, is allegedly a proxy of LeT.

Pakistan is likely to respond in kind to any Indian strike deep in its territory.  Such a response could range from Pakistani air strikes in parts of J&K to attacks further in northern India, such as parts of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh states. But these would probably target sparsely populated land to signal they have the capabilities to mount attacks in Indian territory. Pakistan does not seem intent on an all-out war, based on recent rhetoric by its leadership. A strike against a military site or population centre would probably worsen the ongoing escalation cycle.

Any such tit-for-tat strikes will probably lead to temporary airspace closures in parts of northern India and northeastern Pakistan. This was the case in 2019, when both sides conducted air strikes, leading to partial airspace closures. The civil aviation authorities in both countries would seek to similarly shield civilian air traffic from such skirmishes this time around, particularly if there are signs that further attacks by either side are likely after an initial exchange. This would likely lead to delays and diversions for domestic and international flights in India and Pakistan.

Ceasefire almost certain to collapse in coming weeks

A border ceasefire between India and Pakistan seems to be under severe strain. For the first time since 2021, both sides have reportedly fired small arms at each other’s posts along the Line of Control in J&K daily since 25 April. Neither country has publicly reported casualties. But this, and India’s allegations of Pakistan being behind the recent attack in J&K, suggest the ceasefire will probably collapse in the coming weeks. This would lead to weekly exchanges between rival troops involving heavy weaponry, and potentially artillery, resulting in occasional casualties and feeding into bilateral tensions in the long run.