Jamaica | Security around general election

• A general election in Jamaica next month is highly likely to pass off peacefully 
• Voters will head to the polls on 3 September to elect all 63 members of the House of Representatives 
• We do not anticipate any major disruption to business operations, but political rallies are likely to cause traffic disruption

An upcoming general election in Jamaica on 3 September is highly likely to proceed peacefully amid a divisive campaign. There have been incidents of campaign-related disturbances in recent weeks, including alleged intimidation by rival party supporters. Still, any further incidents would be very unlikely to disrupt the election. Some rallies with several thousand people in Kingston are probable on election day, but we doubt that these would escalate to unrest. That said, election-related events will probably cause severe, hours-long traffic delays.

Election will probably be very close

The general election is set to be contentious. On 10 August, Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced the election date at a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) rally in the capital, Kingston. Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) officials accused him of delaying the announcement to give the ruling JLP an advantage. Polling data cited in The Gleaner (one of the island’s most well-known newspapers) on 21 August suggests the PNP currently leads the JLP by 0.8 percentage points, indicating a very tight race.

Election-related unrest and violence unlikely

Both parties have been critical of one another, but we have not seen any senior party officials question the integrity of the electoral process. The 2020 election passed without major unrest, though this was partly attributed to COVID-19 public health restrictions, based on local press reports. Similarly, the 2016 election also proceeded with little disruption, despite requiring a recount to determine the outcome. We have seen no indications that the general election next month will be significantly different. 

The election period, including election day, is likely to proceed peacefully. Authorities have not announced a specific security plan, nor have they indicated a heightened risk of violence around the election. We have not seen reports of significant campaign-related violence, such as targeted killings or violent clashes between rival party supporters. An incident reported in the local press involving gunfire near a JLP rally in Central Kingston on 20 July briefly halted the event, but the local authorities later said that the incident was not linked to the election. 

We anticipate that the authorities will deploy a large and visible police force to secure mass rallies and the election itself. This is based on images published by the Jamaica Constabulary Force in recent weeks showing large deployments of officers tasked with securing major JLP and PNP events in the capital. Still, on 26 August, the Australian government advised its travellers to avoid protests and large public gatherings as ‘these can turn violent.’ We have not seen other governments, such as France, the UK or US, issue similar election-specific warnings.

Political rallies consisting of several thousand people are likely on and after election day, regardless of the outcome. We have not seen any official plans for events yet, but such mobilisations in Jamaica are typically festive, marked by music and speeches. These would probably occur near JLP and PNP headquarters in the Half Way Tree and Cross Roads areas of Kingston, given that both parties held mass rallies in these areas on 10 and 17 August. Elsewhere, localised rallies of a few hundred people are also probable, based on press coverage of these in the past month.

Severe traffic delays probable

The main impact on business operations during the election campaign and on election day is likely to be severe traffic disruption. Press reports suggest that the authorities generally implement extensive road closures around major political rallies as security and crowd-control measures. For instance, during a PNP mass rally in Kingston on 16 August, the authorities enforced road closures from 0600hrs to 0000hrs. 

Severe traffic disruption is probable in areas near JLP and PNP party headquarters, near polling centres, as well as around any mass gatherings. The Australian government advised its travellers that the ‘local authorities can close roads and impose curfews at short notice.’ This is consistent with longstanding advice issued by the UK FCDO to its travellers about demonstrations in Jamaica.

Gang interference highly unlikely

We doubt that gangs will try to disrupt the vote on 3 September. They do not seem intent on affecting national politics. And neither the national authorities nor Western governments have warned about any threats to the elections from organised crime groups. In any case, security forces have carried out major anti-gang operations over the past year. Recent public comments by police and government officials suggest that these efforts have reduced gang-related violence.